{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1a2358f-2eb6-4a5c-b7a6-7a5247fdcf24", "symbol": "3596", "name": "Arcadyan Technology Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.422, "architecture_energy": 26.852, "architecture_maturity": 9.432, "architecture_confidence": 63.5, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.06, "rotation_up": 17.76, "upward_expansion": 17.09, "deceleration": 59.2, "rotation_down": 62.24, "downward_expansion": 42.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 173.866667, 179.827273, 181.607143, 180.784153 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 165.0, "trend_reference": 179.292582, "distance_from_trend": -0.079717, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 167.736905, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.016317, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.404378, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028977, "excess_performance": -0.470349, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079717, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019471, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.016317, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156402, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.374044, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020115, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028977, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.878844, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9652463, "relative_activity": 1.21286, "balance": 0.878844, "dry_up": 0.697017, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092774, "annualized_volatility": 0.395253, "from_high_reference": -0.307518, "from_low_reference": 0.085526 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 179.292582, "fair_value_reference": 167.736905, "structural_low": 152.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.021277, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.000449, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.179245, "worst_return": -0.184475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.089929, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.048486, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.202597, "worst_return": -0.16347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.105023, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.076631, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.498382, "worst_return": 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"activity_lines": [ 187.3, 187.818182, 184.049437, 182.127799 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 172.5, "volume": 4528786, "typical_volume": 8671451.25, "trend": 178.838591, "fair_value": 167.026623, "relative_strength": -32.898991, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.992152, "energy": 10.473989, "activity_lines": [ 182.166667, 184.990909, 183.191737, 181.726439 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 178.5, "volume": 4453857, "typical_volume": 8228725.05, "trend": 179.266854, "fair_value": 167.429247, "relative_strength": -31.110239, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.345397, "energy": 18.039696, "activity_lines": [ 179.633333, 183.554545, 183.033333, 181.704595 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 165.0, "volume": 9652463, "typical_volume": 7958430.8, "trend": 179.292582, "fair_value": 167.736905, "relative_strength": -37.404378, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.422498, "energy": 26.852174, "activity_lines": [ 173.866667, 179.827273, 181.607143, 180.784153 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }