{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1a6a004-ed02-43d9-a6ea-21f7d30551c3", "symbol": "MEDCL", "name": "MedinCell S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.328, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 3.019, "architecture_energy": 10.927, "architecture_maturity": 21.484, "architecture_confidence": 60.106, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 71.07, "rotation_up": 18.79, "upward_expansion": 46.81, "deceleration": 82.91, "rotation_down": 35.85, "downward_expansion": 27.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.485333, 26.045818, 26.139524, 25.481548 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 24.5, "trend_reference": 25.001333, "distance_from_trend": -0.020052, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.009679, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.440356, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.558752, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.031145, "excess_performance": -0.022167, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020052, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012664, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.440356, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.268222, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095588, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235165, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031145, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.755784, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 274093, "relative_activity": 0.755018, "balance": 0.755784, "dry_up": 0.90265, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099027, "annualized_volatility": 0.441438, "from_high_reference": -0.38256, "from_low_reference": 0.566496 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.001333, "fair_value_reference": 17.009679, "structural_low": 19.690001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.01165, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01404, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.163603, "worst_return": -0.254217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.011765, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.013837, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.348837, "worst_return": -0.142012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.21771, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.170349, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.826816, "worst_return": -0.463511, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.403021, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.355283, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.369186, "worst_return": -0.39645, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028278, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141547, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100442, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.123905, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138235, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052224, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041342, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.645821, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081538, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121528, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111712, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036613, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101911, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057692, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.29, "volume": 134108, "typical_volume": 362554.85, "trend": 7.655333, "fair_value": 8.209423, "relative_strength": -12.851443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", 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"relative_strength": -0.472569, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.508214, "energy": 23.913381, "activity_lines": [ 26.66, 26.748727, 26.039714, 25.385118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.0, "volume": 286295, "typical_volume": 380712.7, "trend": 24.992, "fair_value": 16.774231, "relative_strength": 0.966009, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.822559, "energy": 22.048265, "activity_lines": [ 26.522666, 26.582545, 26.145047, 25.452258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.98, "volume": 401105, "typical_volume": 373450.2, "trend": 25.034, "fair_value": 16.895256, "relative_strength": -1.32541, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.595434, "energy": 15.312682, "activity_lines": [ 26.250666, 26.437818, 26.22619, 25.516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.5, "volume": 274093, "typical_volume": 363028.4, "trend": 25.001333, "fair_value": 17.009679, "relative_strength": -9.558752, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.018891, "energy": 10.926735, "activity_lines": [ 25.485333, 26.045818, 26.139524, 25.481548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }