{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1a94e79-47de-4041-87ea-0657fd167464", "symbol": "SAGA-B", "name": "AB Sagax (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.583, "architecture_energy": 19.622, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 61.581, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.31, "rotation_up": 35.1, "upward_expansion": 19.76, "deceleration": 43.61, "rotation_down": 19.01, "downward_expansion": 51.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 166.32, 163.46, 165.265159, 167.848209 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 167.5, "trend_reference": 172.638471, "distance_from_trend": -0.029764, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 217.022951, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.228192, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.645002, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.134588, "excess_performance": -0.196083, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029764, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063326, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 146.199997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.016641, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.000633, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.310309, "worst_return": -0.302158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.022785, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.027545, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.283931, "worst_return": -0.157208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.035351, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.022197, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.296417, "worst_return": 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"typical_volume": 1925973.55, "trend": 175.348733, "fair_value": 218.164491, "relative_strength": -16.18705, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.77765, "energy": 23.843082, "activity_lines": [ 163.0, 161.241819, 166.058605, 169.580357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 161.699997, "volume": 1571880, "typical_volume": 1884311.5, "trend": 174.362179, "fair_value": 217.755343, "relative_strength": -21.102454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.794627, "energy": 22.077694, "activity_lines": [ 163.766666, 161.145454, 165.393146, 168.699793 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 167.300003, "volume": 1166223, "typical_volume": 1857718.15, "trend": 173.637387, "fair_value": 217.407746, "relative_strength": -18.859252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.472129, "energy": 20.3013, "activity_lines": [ 165.566667, 162.285455, 165.316133, 168.244169 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 167.5, "volume": 1330094, "typical_volume": 1818798.4, "trend": 172.638471, "fair_value": 217.022951, "relative_strength": -19.645002, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.582549, "energy": 19.621909, "activity_lines": [ 166.32, 163.46, 165.265159, 167.848209 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }