{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1ab0a39-2b86-48b0-b16f-095ef8b61df0", "symbol": "NGEX", "name": "NGEx Minerals Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.897, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.058, "architecture_energy": 7.578, "architecture_maturity": 35.62, "architecture_confidence": 64.015, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.38, "rotation_up": 29.96, "upward_expansion": 25.12, "deceleration": 33.92, "rotation_down": 27.84, "downward_expansion": 52.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.539333, 26.049636, 26.138571, 26.287721 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 28.91, "trend_reference": 26.681667, "distance_from_trend": 0.083516, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.63109, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.849519, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.501955, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.024451, "excess_performance": -0.09597, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083516, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01021, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.849519, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045914, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00502, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022588, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024451, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.137187, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1451400, "relative_activity": 1.29269, "balance": 1.137187, "dry_up": 0.950257, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097025, "annualized_volatility": 0.612735, "from_high_reference": -0.107991, "from_low_reference": 0.488671 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.681667, "fair_value_reference": 15.63109, "structural_low": 20.120001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.022418, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.027986, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.351598, "worst_return": -0.062441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.369259, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.320215, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.471429, "worst_return": 0.142003, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.806571, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.638802, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.342857, "worst_return": 0.386667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 1.568889, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.505111, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.228571, "worst_return": 0.88642, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.190878, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.195122, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090452, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.304938, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.289617, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006475, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019858, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.134529, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.410454, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.517423, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051551, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.106439, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018603, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157326, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.5, "volume": 911100, "typical_volume": 1553425.0, "trend": 5.5805, "fair_value": 2.30516, "relative_strength": 50.562935, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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43.048756, "activity_lines": [ 25.576667, 25.901455, 26.221572, 26.526323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 26.17, "volume": 34200, "typical_volume": 1432255.0, "trend": 26.682667, "fair_value": 15.02016, "relative_strength": -5.782971, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.110852, "energy": 32.519567, "activity_lines": [ 25.609334, 25.914182, 26.173762, 26.495678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.43, "volume": 854000, "typical_volume": 1408990.0, "trend": 26.694, "fair_value": 15.138301, "relative_strength": -8.799672, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.469878, "energy": 35.093315, "activity_lines": [ 25.570667, 25.814, 26.071143, 26.41486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.219999, "volume": 775600, "typical_volume": 1348960.0, "trend": 26.621333, "fair_value": 15.249327, "relative_strength": -13.125426, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.050264, "energy": 41.757914, "activity_lines": [ 25.082, 25.483455, 25.875572, 26.255247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.49, "volume": 1053600, "typical_volume": 1321700.0, "trend": 26.662667, "fair_value": 15.374712, "relative_strength": -5.327957, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.561548, "energy": 19.939541, "activity_lines": [ 25.509333, 25.609091, 25.930952, 26.246774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.049999, "volume": 987100, "typical_volume": 1295370.0, "trend": 26.662667, "fair_value": 15.490321, "relative_strength": -10.043322, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.806842, "energy": 23.436187, "activity_lines": [ 25.393333, 25.479091, 25.851381, 26.142731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.91, "volume": 1451400, "typical_volume": 1122775.0, "trend": 26.681667, "fair_value": 15.63109, "relative_strength": 0.501955, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.057689, "energy": 7.578033, "activity_lines": [ 26.539333, 26.049636, 26.138571, 26.287721 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }