{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1adf29c-1eec-47e7-bc1b-c61700307732", "symbol": "AU8U", "name": "CapitaLand China Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.638, "architecture_energy": 14.862, "architecture_maturity": 95.51, "architecture_confidence": 78.115, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.42, "rotation_up": 35.12, "upward_expansion": 23.5, "deceleration": 43.94, "rotation_down": 16.59, "downward_expansion": 46.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.659333, 0.653727, 0.654262, 0.659474 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.665, "trend_reference": 0.675781, "distance_from_trend": -0.015953, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.676737, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.017344, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.747367, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.103226, "excess_performance": -0.258061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015953, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052739, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.017344, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005107, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217474, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074922, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.103226, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.124251, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16610000, "relative_activity": 2.351267, "balance": 1.124251, "dry_up": 1.452297, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02834, "annualized_volatility": 0.143234, "from_high_reference": -0.168445, "from_low_reference": 0.072581 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.675781, "fair_value_reference": 0.676737, "structural_low": 0.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.457143, "directional_follow_through": 0.485714, "median_excess_return": -0.015336, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.144384, "worst_return": -0.118279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.017869, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.046681, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.158936, "worst_return": -0.143415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.035419, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.020552, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.166285, "worst_return": -0.231421, 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"relative_strength": -21.835261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.597352, "energy": 31.191554, "activity_lines": [ 0.648667, 0.647091, 0.652976, 0.663851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.655, "volume": 7475000, "typical_volume": 7058535.0, "trend": 0.682666, "fair_value": 0.678651, "relative_strength": -22.405463, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.643436, "energy": 20.05967, "activity_lines": [ 0.652, 0.648364, 0.652881, 0.661859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.66, "volume": 10138800, "typical_volume": 6868440.0, "trend": 0.679302, "fair_value": 0.677665, "relative_strength": -21.865083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.505602, "energy": 19.147213, "activity_lines": [ 0.655667, 0.650636, 0.653357, 0.660397 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.665, "volume": 16610000, "typical_volume": 7064275.0, "trend": 0.675781, "fair_value": 0.676737, "relative_strength": -21.747367, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.637693, "energy": 14.862094, "activity_lines": [ 0.659333, 0.653727, 0.654262, 0.659474 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }