{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c1aed3d9-9cd0-4d69-bdff-79b036458029",
    "symbol": "VIB3",
    "name": "Villeroy & Boch AG",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -63.159,
    "architecture_energy": 43.113,
    "architecture_maturity": 24.106,
    "architecture_confidence": 94.671,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 13.86,
        "rotation_up": 20.62,
        "upward_expansion": 5.64,
        "deceleration": 51.88,
        "rotation_down": 57.15,
        "downward_expansion": 81.31
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        15.553333,
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        15.887465,
        16.150025
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 15.45,
    "trend_reference": 16.502672,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.063788,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 15.505557,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.003583,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -11.388361,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.130975,
    "excess_performance": -0.195615,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.063788,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.006884,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003583,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.060963,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.113884,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.109592,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.130975,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.564935,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 21900,
      "relative_activity": 1.441705,
      "balance": 0.564935,
      "dry_up": 1.343485,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.037341,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.182305,
      "from_high_reference": -0.179254,
      "from_low_reference": 0.062141
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 16.502672,
      "fair_value_reference": 15.505557,
      "structural_low": 15.3,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 23,
        "median_return": 0.023179,
        "positive_rate": 0.565217,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.391304,
        "median_excess_return": -0.015699,
        "regime_survival": 0.73913,
        "best_return": 0.237805,
        "worst_return": -0.192118,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.005556,
        "positive_rate": 0.444444,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.555556,
        "median_excess_return": 0.01073,
        "regime_survival": 0.555556,
        "best_return": 0.172414,
        "worst_return": -0.157767,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.024536,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.025994,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.199416,
        "worst_return": -0.095522,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.066152,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.169637,
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        "best_return": 0.095256,
        "worst_return": -0.050214,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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        "regime": "balance",
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      {
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-09-26",
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        "active": false
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        "relative_strength": 0.086197,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 8.202856,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 29386.0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 26545.6,
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        "fair_value": 15.505857,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 25522.1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 20122.65,
        "trend": 16.505966,
        "fair_value": 15.510335,
        "relative_strength": -3.954015,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -31.29618,
        "energy": 43.107119,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 18249.3,
        "trend": 16.523913,
        "fair_value": 15.510744,
        "relative_strength": -8.952872,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 18734.8,
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        "fair_value": 15.50841,
        "relative_strength": -7.914111,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.512119,
        "energy": 64.455753,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 15.55,
        "volume": 12338,
        "typical_volume": 16866.85,
        "trend": 16.528879,
        "fair_value": 15.511635,
        "relative_strength": -6.225811,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -64.744762,
        "energy": 61.712813,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.65,
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          16.060071,
          16.333414
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 15.7,
        "volume": 19711,
        "typical_volume": 16418.75,
        "trend": 16.538821,
        "fair_value": 15.509537,
        "relative_strength": -6.118272,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -58.772349,
        "energy": 54.987204,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.633333,
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          16.005326,
          16.279938
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 15.6,
        "volume": 27683,
        "typical_volume": 16828.2,
        "trend": 16.524831,
        "fair_value": 15.507618,
        "relative_strength": -8.393796,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -59.827894,
        "energy": 46.783576,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.606667,
          15.71,
          15.949596,
          16.219369
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 15.45,
        "volume": 21900,
        "typical_volume": 15190.35,
        "trend": 16.502672,
        "fair_value": 15.505557,
        "relative_strength": -11.388361,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -63.158657,
        "energy": 43.113025,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.553333,
          15.645454,
          15.887465,
          16.150025
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}