{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1afb69c-8a02-43b6-8e11-80d48708053d", "symbol": "AMPH", "name": "Amphastar P", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.675, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.786, "architecture_energy": 6.66, "architecture_maturity": 14.306, "architecture_confidence": 59.192, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.81, "rotation_up": 23.08, "upward_expansion": 28.87, "deceleration": 46.42, "rotation_down": 30.99, "downward_expansion": 46.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.868667, 19.804091, 19.72331, 20.120204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.78, "trend_reference": 21.303833, "distance_from_trend": -0.024589, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.289519, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.411157, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.983347, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.289815, "excess_performance": -0.477269, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024589, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093338, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.411157, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091122, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.239833, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123158, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.289815, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.506514, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3074772, "relative_activity": 1.1539, "balance": 1.506514, "dry_up": 0.862304, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100854, "annualized_volatility": 0.699144, "from_high_reference": -0.33534, "from_low_reference": 0.248423 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.303833, "fair_value_reference": 35.289519, "structural_low": 16.645, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.013429, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.02304, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.1146, "worst_return": -0.362105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.019917, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.016202, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.327577, "worst_return": -0.370879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.108371, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.151197, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.173731, "worst_return": -0.310053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.492936, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.322109, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.762512, "worst_return": -0.41791, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.081524, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066504, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009027, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053311, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06528, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08789, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.347671, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099899, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025794, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", 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"relative_strength": -26.190652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.678756, "energy": 15.972188, "activity_lines": [ 19.659667, 19.600364, 19.703048, 20.499699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.72, "volume": 2563845, "typical_volume": 2775349.95, "trend": 21.753167, "fair_value": 35.781699, "relative_strength": -28.447685, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.380965, "energy": 30.26496, "activity_lines": [ 19.32, 19.501182, 19.6065, 20.285946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.94, "volume": 1721740, "typical_volume": 2697957.8, "trend": 21.535833, "fair_value": 35.506891, "relative_strength": -23.839046, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.608646, "energy": 24.337344, "activity_lines": [ 19.393, 19.590182, 19.629095, 20.168968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.78, "volume": 3074772, "typical_volume": 2664678.9, "trend": 21.303833, "fair_value": 35.289519, "relative_strength": -23.983347, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.785829, "energy": 6.659943, "activity_lines": [ 19.868667, 19.804091, 19.72331, 20.120204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }