{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1b1f709-2260-4434-bf70-b5162f712727", "symbol": "NRC", "name": "NRC Group ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.632, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.577, "architecture_energy": 43.065, "architecture_maturity": 35.373, "architecture_confidence": 94.175, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.0, "rotation_up": 14.95, "upward_expansion": 10.64, "deceleration": 37.6, "rotation_down": 55.54, "downward_expansion": 79.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.917333, 8.046909, 8.120762, 8.136774 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.92, "trend_reference": 8.268667, "distance_from_trend": -0.042167, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.280064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.043486, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.345729, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.09589, "excess_performance": -0.220884, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042167, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005213, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.043486, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023015, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143457, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073189, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09589, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.677081, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 997635, "relative_activity": 0.597269, "balance": 0.677081, "dry_up": 0.611659, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065948, "annualized_volatility": 0.344282, "from_high_reference": -0.215842, "from_low_reference": 0.21659 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.268667, "fair_value_reference": 8.280064, "structural_low": 7.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.003286, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.017672, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.390215, "worst_return": -0.15935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.005882, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.035328, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.39645, "worst_return": -0.180583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.235561, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.168077, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.417004, "worst_return": -0.348544, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.183204, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.206015, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.591093, "worst_return": -0.688057, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024038, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.458239, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106838, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05668, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.315789, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.196379, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093677, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222678, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.16649, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019632, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017287, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145704, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060498, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.3, "volume": 184665, "typical_volume": 259095.7, "trend": 11.651333, "fair_value": 17.93391, "relative_strength": -27.534949, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"typical_volume": 1860848.65, "trend": 8.341, "fair_value": 8.316154, "relative_strength": -14.04002, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.195751, "energy": 21.86673, "activity_lines": [ 8.122, 8.167455, 8.178381, 8.200839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.73, "volume": 1084269, "typical_volume": 1796580.5, "trend": 8.302, "fair_value": 8.297115, "relative_strength": -16.298161, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.670467, "energy": 40.509461, "activity_lines": [ 7.964667, 8.087273, 8.139905, 8.161419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.92, "volume": 997635, "typical_volume": 1670326.55, "trend": 8.268667, "fair_value": 8.280064, "relative_strength": -14.345729, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.577448, "energy": 43.064969, "activity_lines": [ 7.917333, 8.046909, 8.120762, 8.136774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }