{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1b27ed6-25dd-49a6-87bd-e1d7944a90c1", "symbol": "EPOL", "name": "ISHARES TRUST MSCI POLAND ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.148, "architecture_energy": 91.078, "architecture_maturity": 44.009, "architecture_confidence": 77.741, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.11, "rotation_up": 86.23, "upward_expansion": 98.42, "deceleration": 39.03, "rotation_down": 9.16, "downward_expansion": 20.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.406667, 41.251322, 40.317476, 39.435916 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 44.19, "trend_reference": 38.422505, "distance_from_trend": 0.150107, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.696306, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.655285, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.149696, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.174167, "excess_performance": 0.048542, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.150107, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06312, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.655285, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089382, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.101497, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064396, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.174167, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.064083, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2885178, "relative_activity": 1.404051, "balance": 2.064083, "dry_up": 1.022765, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034801, "annualized_volatility": 0.242618, "from_high_reference": -0.002821, "from_low_reference": 0.492787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.422505, "fair_value_reference": 26.696306, "structural_low": 34.037426, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.012752, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": 0.000289, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.124604, "worst_return": -0.149613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.062786, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.011171, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.201345, "worst_return": -0.113956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.16498, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.022135, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.275836, "worst_return": -0.303308, "sufficient": true }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072873, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04428, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008004, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.106387, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069547, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.292212, "energy": 34.955888, "activity_lines": [ 39.637496, 39.549325, 38.941397, 38.340424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.35, "volume": 1127628, "typical_volume": 2245443.95, "trend": 37.719221, "fair_value": 26.21824, "relative_strength": 5.329697, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.423929, "energy": 36.26776, "activity_lines": [ 39.856, 39.721279, 39.154416, 38.522692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.92, "volume": 2022643, "typical_volume": 2144286.9, "trend": 37.9187, "fair_value": 26.363918, "relative_strength": 7.264739, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.424195, "energy": 59.501945, "activity_lines": [ 40.284, 39.967541, 39.409786, 38.729194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.83, "volume": 2371248, "typical_volume": 2048534.55, "trend": 38.147109, "fair_value": 26.52517, "relative_strength": 10.730281, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.758694, "energy": 79.693736, "activity_lines": [ 41.270667, 40.514705, 39.819367, 39.046052 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.19, "volume": 2885178, "typical_volume": 2054895.15, "trend": 38.422505, "fair_value": 26.696306, "relative_strength": 10.149696, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.147846, "energy": 91.07767, "activity_lines": [ 42.406667, 41.251322, 40.317476, 39.435916 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }