{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1b912dc-f4c3-4863-ae0d-10139b8f0ce0", "symbol": "00656R", "name": "Cathay FTSE China A50 Daily Inversed ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 55.903, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.04, "architecture_energy": 14.029, "architecture_maturity": 25.754, "architecture_confidence": 63.935, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.93, "rotation_up": 24.58, "upward_expansion": 24.87, "deceleration": 48.72, "rotation_down": 31.43, "downward_expansion": 49.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.884667, 5.883818, 5.863619, 5.923591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.78, "trend_reference": 5.999, "distance_from_trend": -0.036506, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.521346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.231521, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.284365, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.058632, "excess_performance": -0.437944, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036506, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012294, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.231521, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018566, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.312844, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089458, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.058632, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.962478, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3411000, "relative_activity": 1.843136, "balance": 0.962478, "dry_up": 1.796801, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036731, "annualized_volatility": 0.142133, "from_high_reference": -0.141159, "from_low_reference": 0.043321 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.999, "fair_value_reference": 7.521346, "structural_low": 5.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.014589, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.012084, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.134641, "worst_return": -0.076115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.020683, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01867, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.189607, "worst_return": -0.153846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.013382, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.025857, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.068592, "worst_return": -0.134817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.053528, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.017918, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.10729, "worst_return": -0.238806, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035278, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011873, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052279, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020942, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006676, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076115, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.098266, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021173, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015823, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", 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"fair_value": 7.570705, "relative_strength": -27.865421, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.102128, "energy": 17.981328, "activity_lines": [ 5.966, 5.880545, 5.891524, 5.955527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.84, "volume": 4902000, "typical_volume": 1736480.25, "trend": 6.009333, "fair_value": 7.553974, "relative_strength": -31.727639, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.97082, "energy": 19.107099, "activity_lines": [ 5.943333, 5.881273, 5.879571, 5.943978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.92, "volume": 1748000, "typical_volume": 1711230.25, "trend": 6.006667, "fair_value": 7.536795, "relative_strength": -28.938912, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.89279, "energy": 14.376463, "activity_lines": [ 5.938667, 5.895455, 5.877524, 5.938215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.78, "volume": 3411000, "typical_volume": 1850650.0, "trend": 5.999, "fair_value": 7.521346, "relative_strength": -31.284365, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.040368, "energy": 14.029398, "activity_lines": [ 5.884667, 5.883818, 5.863619, 5.923591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }