{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1b94027-a92b-46b6-ab9c-bd4325dae8c4", "symbol": "XAR", "name": "Xaar plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.614, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.43, "architecture_energy": 31.473, "architecture_maturity": 6.544, "architecture_confidence": 66.165, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.83, "rotation_up": 17.06, "upward_expansion": 19.3, "deceleration": 55.36, "rotation_down": 59.85, "downward_expansion": 48.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 119.733333, 121.936364, 127.247619, 125.987097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 119.0, "trend_reference": 122.908333, "distance_from_trend": -0.031799, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 117.832372, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.009909, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.463697, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.144231, "excess_performance": 0.092995, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031799, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040347, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.009909, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12211, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094637, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183321, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.144231, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.532357, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 611525, "relative_activity": 0.849691, "balance": 0.532357, "dry_up": 0.529882, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097743, "annualized_volatility": 0.413365, "from_high_reference": -0.206667, "from_low_reference": 0.235298 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 122.908333, "fair_value_reference": 117.832372, "structural_low": 101.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.042857, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.05497, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.218919, "worst_return": -0.124378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.064865, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.026518, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.199041, "worst_return": -0.27619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.048649, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.009171, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.528777, "worst_return": -0.392381, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.096232, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.059419, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.247619, "worst_return": -0.055156, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116935, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.40481, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111702, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.185644, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.27193, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11985, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153527, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.208955, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080169, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061538, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012346, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008333, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 184.0, "volume": 145858, "typical_volume": 314058.85, "trend": 178.643333, "fair_value": 181.298397, "relative_strength": 4.318246, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", 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"trend": 120.575, "fair_value": 119.470192, "relative_strength": -2.792978, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.875011, "energy": 20.221921, "activity_lines": [ 124.833333, 129.981818, 130.290476, 126.554839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 118.0, "volume": 369953, "typical_volume": 692179.1, "trend": 121.108333, "fair_value": 119.088782, "relative_strength": -8.732272, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.367313, "energy": 23.291693, "activity_lines": [ 121.766667, 127.118182, 129.432143, 126.38871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 120.0, "volume": 140255, "typical_volume": 686277.1, "trend": 121.758333, "fair_value": 118.665705, "relative_strength": -7.968576, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.669231, "energy": 26.808482, "activity_lines": [ 120.633333, 124.981818, 128.766667, 126.317204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 120.0, "volume": 403696, "typical_volume": 697335.1, "trend": 122.358333, "fair_value": 118.261859, "relative_strength": -8.753009, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.362266, "energy": 33.991807, "activity_lines": [ 120.3, 123.336364, 128.071429, 126.203763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 119.0, "volume": 611525, "typical_volume": 719702.5, "trend": 122.908333, "fair_value": 117.832372, "relative_strength": -9.463697, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.429736, "energy": 31.473046, "activity_lines": [ 119.733333, 121.936364, 127.247619, 125.987097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }