{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1bbdd80-f28c-4916-a227-801ff2fd55df", "symbol": "6259", "name": "Bull Will Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.126, "architecture_energy": 24.397, "architecture_maturity": 79.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.832, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.4, "rotation_up": 23.47, "upward_expansion": 56.07, "deceleration": 91.11, "rotation_down": 31.0, "downward_expansion": 19.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.239416, 33.151928, 31.047972, 28.147421 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 33.450001, "trend_reference": 24.494325, "distance_from_trend": 0.365622, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.058393, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.755132, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 19.061888, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.989294, "excess_performance": 0.547922, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.365622, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.30005, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.755132, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.451814, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.190619, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.270967, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.989294, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.855314, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4716100, "relative_activity": 0.664931, "balance": 0.855314, "dry_up": 0.699173, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.172432, "annualized_volatility": 0.701983, "from_high_reference": -0.218984, "from_low_reference": 1.195973 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.494325, "fair_value_reference": 19.058393, "structural_low": 16.518279, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.041177, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.009712, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.180628, "worst_return": -0.098187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.002838, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046117, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.379412, "worst_return": -0.166163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.014458, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088622, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.989294, "worst_return": -0.146371, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"up", "direction": 65.286346, "energy": 62.380704, "activity_lines": [ 36.907309, 34.335901, 29.289448, 26.196006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.701248, "volume": 9521091, "typical_volume": 6604616.35, "trend": 23.245934, "fair_value": 18.790268, "relative_strength": 18.361514, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.077406, "energy": 49.663153, "activity_lines": [ 34.978528, 34.343993, 29.894223, 26.772673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.700001, "volume": 2903329, "typical_volume": 6740604.45, "trend": 23.614438, "fair_value": 18.870046, "relative_strength": 12.208273, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.599003, "energy": 29.598736, "activity_lines": [ 32.633241, 33.833561, 30.239872, 27.189064 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.0, "volume": 2695346, "typical_volume": 6863277.95, "trend": 23.981039, "fair_value": 18.949957, "relative_strength": 7.07243, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.003555, "energy": 25.866924, "activity_lines": [ 30.840855, 33.109051, 30.460793, 27.53652 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 33.450001, "volume": 4716100, "typical_volume": 7092620.7, "trend": 24.494325, "fair_value": 19.058393, "relative_strength": 19.061888, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.125589, "energy": 24.396837, "activity_lines": [ 31.239416, 33.151928, 31.047972, 28.147421 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }