{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1bce763-6c3a-4ee2-951f-bb0ef1bd4046", "symbol": "600874", "name": "Tianjin Capital Environmental Protection Group Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.469, "architecture_energy": 29.933, "architecture_maturity": 80.726, "architecture_confidence": 81.9, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.2, "rotation_up": 27.53, "upward_expansion": 17.56, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 28.01, "downward_expansion": 62.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.512733, 5.459379, 5.6103, 5.767635 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.52, "trend_reference": 5.945557, "distance_from_trend": -0.071576, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.67387, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.027119, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.370857, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.121019, "excess_performance": -0.077815, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071576, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035178, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.027119, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131285, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073709, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016423, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.121019, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.479865, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39745896, "relative_activity": 0.907072, "balance": 0.479865, "dry_up": 0.929801, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043138, "annualized_volatility": 0.208232, "from_high_reference": -0.189427, "from_low_reference": 0.07015 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.945557, "fair_value_reference": 5.67387, "structural_low": 5.158155, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.014655, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": 0.008051, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.154321, "worst_return": -0.068101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.00619, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.0104, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.234568, "worst_return": -0.054348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.045936, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.034641, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.228395, "worst_return": -0.097826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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6.002891, "fair_value": 5.67317, "relative_strength": -12.765215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.707056, "energy": 86.984018, "activity_lines": [ 5.333943, 5.489504, 5.750523, 5.888144 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.47, "volume": 43103560, "typical_volume": 49801525.95, "trend": 5.992891, "fair_value": 5.67365, "relative_strength": -4.845677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.50407, "energy": 81.138984, "activity_lines": [ 5.362828, 5.457382, 5.703967, 5.853764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.47, "volume": 44768400, "typical_volume": 47922506.8, "trend": 5.972557, "fair_value": 5.673682, "relative_strength": -5.78156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.790975, "energy": 55.720219, "activity_lines": [ 5.401719, 5.439623, 5.662078, 5.820029 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.6, "volume": 35349515, "typical_volume": 44994427.8, "trend": 5.959557, "fair_value": 5.674244, "relative_strength": -3.706339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.708658, "energy": 39.247112, "activity_lines": [ 5.484967, 5.454229, 5.637665, 5.795993 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.52, "volume": 39745896, "typical_volume": 43817792.0, "trend": 5.945557, "fair_value": 5.67387, "relative_strength": -7.370857, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.469321, "energy": 29.933286, "activity_lines": [ 5.512733, 5.459379, 5.6103, 5.767635 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }