{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1c13e81-0099-4dad-9c0a-4804420161c2", "symbol": "PQAP", "name": "PGIM NASDAQ-100 BUFFER 12 ETF - APRIL", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.357, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.241, "architecture_energy": 60.637, "architecture_maturity": 58.685, "architecture_confidence": 69.038, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.61, "rotation_up": 52.95, "upward_expansion": 83.41, "deceleration": 68.26, "rotation_down": 29.5, "downward_expansion": 10.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.939613, 31.872171, 31.736587, 31.242123 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.335, "trend_reference": 30.526363, "distance_from_trend": 0.059248, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.051493, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.152702, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.959872, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.123914, "excess_performance": -0.06354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059248, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039098, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.152702, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008029, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039599, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02507, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123914, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.982312, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9761, "relative_activity": 0.386737, "balance": 1.982312, "dry_up": 0.304712, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011676, "annualized_volatility": 0.064039, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.181174 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.526363, "fair_value_reference": 28.051493, "structural_low": 28.7, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015284, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016504, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-03", "close": 25.116684, "volume": 3202342, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-10", "close": 24.985506, "volume": 2696072, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 31.6344, "volume": 27319, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 31.8064, "volume": 11574, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 31.795, "volume": 773, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 31.7175, "volume": 18557, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 31.795, "volume": 81156, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.06, "volume": 19212, "typical_volume": 24861.4, "trend": 30.096386, "fair_value": 27.861323, "relative_strength": -5.554782, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.720301, "energy": 64.347764, "activity_lines": [ 31.868593, 31.841371, 31.410489, 30.828255 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.7046, "volume": 8287, "typical_volume": 24858.65, "trend": 30.202533, "fair_value": 27.90877, "relative_strength": -2.427207, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.854339, "energy": 59.09529, "activity_lines": [ 31.8252, 31.819329, 31.497836, 30.932011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.57, "volume": 8430, "typical_volume": 24886.25, "trend": 30.299697, "fair_value": 27.95342, "relative_strength": -1.172, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.156971, "energy": 51.603605, "activity_lines": [ 31.743727, 31.773731, 31.558913, 31.020235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.81, "volume": 4285, "typical_volume": 24904.8, "trend": 30.40603, "fair_value": 27.999884, "relative_strength": -0.843474, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.455695, "energy": 48.285292, "activity_lines": [ 31.757253, 31.774587, 31.629655, 31.117674 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.335, "volume": 9761, "typical_volume": 25239.4, "trend": 30.526363, "fair_value": 28.051493, "relative_strength": -3.959872, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.240776, "energy": 60.637296, "activity_lines": [ 31.939613, 31.872171, 31.736587, 31.242123 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }