{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1c36323-c408-44c4-a90d-c17e75cb0988", "symbol": "FCH", "name": "Franchetti S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 51.586, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.879, "architecture_energy": 15.754, "architecture_maturity": 42.61, "architecture_confidence": 83.917, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.44, "rotation_up": 29.62, "upward_expansion": 17.6, "deceleration": 42.63, "rotation_down": 26.42, "downward_expansion": 65.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.386667, 5.288083, 5.429018, 5.569335 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.8, "trend_reference": 5.66199, "distance_from_trend": 0.024375, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.848405, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.008277, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.89831, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.017544, "excess_performance": -0.153348, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024375, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037659, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.008277, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023312, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088983, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022233, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017544, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.623377, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31500, "relative_activity": 2.168675, "balance": 1.623377, "dry_up": 1.471601, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055487, "annualized_volatility": 0.379585, "from_high_reference": -0.134328, "from_low_reference": 0.324201 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.66199, "fair_value_reference": 5.848405, "structural_low": 4.96, 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"Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.047846, "energy": 61.015136, "activity_lines": [ 5.245605, 5.447361, 5.696438, 5.691073 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.1, "volume": 7500, "typical_volume": 17650.0, "trend": 5.559657, "fair_value": 5.796858, "relative_strength": -22.646762, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.391384, "energy": 67.089234, "activity_lines": [ 5.152971, 5.35173, 5.627106, 5.66245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.25, "volume": 40500, "typical_volume": 19550.0, "trend": 5.58199, "fair_value": 5.807725, "relative_strength": -19.191365, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.623796, "energy": 60.701306, "activity_lines": [ 5.154, 5.307008, 5.575869, 5.642472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.1, "volume": 10500, "typical_volume": 19500.0, "trend": 5.599324, "fair_value": 5.818012, "relative_strength": -19.47889, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.710308, "energy": 52.100863, "activity_lines": [ 5.142, 5.245998, 5.51249, 5.611376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.25, "volume": 21000, "typical_volume": 16425.0, "trend": 5.619657, "fair_value": 5.829961, "relative_strength": -16.181, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.803456, "energy": 46.620023, "activity_lines": [ 5.180667, 5.225072, 5.466015, 5.588839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.15, "volume": 22500, "typical_volume": 13925.0, "trend": 5.632657, "fair_value": 5.837322, "relative_strength": -17.455993, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.088848, "energy": 44.056853, "activity_lines": [ 5.176667, 5.192438, 5.41335, 5.558539 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.8, "volume": 31500, "typical_volume": 14525.0, "trend": 5.66199, "fair_value": 5.848405, "relative_strength": -8.89831, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.878927, "energy": 15.754159, "activity_lines": [ 5.386667, 5.288083, 5.429018, 5.569335 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }