{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1c36dcf-e388-4447-ac3f-5c089ab6ce3f", "symbol": "HDP", "name": "Les H\u00f4tels de Paris SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.129, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -7.24, "architecture_energy": 15.431, "architecture_maturity": 18.49, "architecture_confidence": 48.116, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.24, "rotation_up": 49.69, "upward_expansion": 30.39, "deceleration": 38.64, "rotation_down": 26.06, "downward_expansion": 29.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.915333, 1.854909, 1.86319, 1.874839 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.84, "trend_reference": 1.882667, "distance_from_trend": -0.022663, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.204615, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.165387, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.143773, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.005464, "excess_performance": -0.047847, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022663, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015513, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.165387, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022306, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111438, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043131, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005464, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.068679, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2739, "relative_activity": 1.107875, "balance": 1.068679, "dry_up": 1.542491, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103679, "annualized_volatility": 0.523182, "from_high_reference": -0.178571, "from_low_reference": 0.115152 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.882667, "fair_value_reference": 2.204615, "structural_low": 1.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.02997, "positive_rate": 0.277778, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": -0.006913, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.289062, "worst_return": -0.128342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.1351, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.128542, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.31405, "worst_return": -0.366667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.278075, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.19511, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.014388, "worst_return": -0.384328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.395522, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.319514, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.230216, "worst_return": -0.609272, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-05-05", "end": "2023-06-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.191667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-06-30", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.757576, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.086093, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.444444, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007519, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.217687, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.073684, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038095, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020101, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040201, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.145729, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.133721, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.132075, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.0, "volume": 3458, "typical_volume": 4288.55, "trend": 1.595667, "fair_value": 1.900321, "relative_strength": 98.391997, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.989438, "energy": 81.760362, "activity_lines": [ 2.746667, 2.483455, 2.031952, 1.814968 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 2.76, "volume": 3373, "typical_volume": 4411.35, "trend": 1.647, "fair_value": 1.900064, "relative_strength": 78.34154, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.30309, "energy": 68.223604, "activity_lines": [ 2.786667, 2.585091, 2.130095, 1.890086 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 2.86, "volume": 3176, "typical_volume": 4516.45, "trend": 1.696, "fair_value": 1.904038, "relative_strength": 80.765472, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.333075, "energy": 68.613559, "activity_lines": [ 2.836, 2.678, 2.230238, 1.968344 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 3.0, "volume": 2006, "typical_volume": 4506.95, "trend": 1.749667, "fair_value": 1.910321, 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"activity_lines": [ 1.741333, 1.771091, 1.837619, 1.857075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.95, "volume": 2977, "typical_volume": 2346.55, "trend": 1.88, "fair_value": 2.213846, "relative_strength": -2.618391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.399465, "energy": 16.988001, "activity_lines": [ 1.809333, 1.796727, 1.84519, 1.862237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.12, "volume": 3626, "typical_volume": 2495.7, "trend": 1.884667, "fair_value": 2.210769, "relative_strength": 4.340269, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.890324, "energy": 17.5952, "activity_lines": [ 1.917333, 1.852182, 1.868286, 1.87772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.84, "volume": 2739, "typical_volume": 2472.3, "trend": 1.882667, "fair_value": 2.204615, "relative_strength": -11.143773, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.240117, "energy": 15.430588, "activity_lines": [ 1.915333, 1.854909, 1.86319, 1.874839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }