{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1c6e789-12bb-47e9-b719-57846d6bf6d7", "symbol": "AMTD", "name": "AMTD IDEA Group", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.854, "architecture_energy": 85.131, "architecture_maturity": 29.423, "architecture_confidence": 82.389, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 8.4, "upward_expansion": 19.61, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 78.5, "downward_expansion": 92.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.806507, 0.868347, 0.927087, 0.952605 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.7653, "trend_reference": 0.978377, "distance_from_trend": -0.217786, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.422302, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.461929, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.671384, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.219082, "excess_performance": -0.344707, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.217786, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038301, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.461929, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071849, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.336714, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234746, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.219082, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.490277, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71150, "relative_activity": 0.914476, "balance": 0.490277, "dry_up": 0.745244, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10763, "annualized_volatility": 0.336437, "from_high_reference": -0.536182, "from_low_reference": 0.077736 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.978377, "fair_value_reference": 1.422302, "structural_low": 0.7101, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.044693, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.622222, "median_excess_return": -0.057679, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 2.9, "worst_return": -0.382114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.130609, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.194991, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.483333, "worst_return": -0.52381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.340283, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.098901, "worst_return": -0.563218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.9604, "volume": 22907, "typical_volume": 113481.6, "trend": 1.007027, "fair_value": 1.517491, "relative_strength": -16.946177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.491216, "energy": 44.845282, "activity_lines": [ 0.960233, 0.975531, 0.993491, 0.999258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.956, "volume": 16516, "typical_volume": 86438.0, "trend": 1.003227, "fair_value": 1.494773, "relative_strength": -15.634491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.58004, "energy": 39.878897, "activity_lines": [ 0.95584, 0.969325, 0.988944, 0.995966 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.7981, "volume": 57532, "typical_volume": 79451.3, "trend": 0.996163, "fair_value": 1.471043, "relative_strength": -28.632735, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.99114, "energy": 68.778046, "activity_lines": [ 0.90308, 0.936302, 0.969664, 0.982732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.7511, "volume": 86734, "typical_volume": 77317.15, "trend": 0.9872, "fair_value": 1.446627, "relative_strength": -33.049525, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.557465, "energy": 83.146586, "activity_lines": [ 0.845113, 0.898949, 0.946964, 0.966922 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.7653, "volume": 71150, "typical_volume": 77804.1, "trend": 0.978377, "fair_value": 1.422302, "relative_strength": -33.671384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.853738, "energy": 85.130763, "activity_lines": [ 0.806507, 0.868347, 0.927087, 0.952605 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }