{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1ca7e40-be3f-43b6-9b3b-a4904065c0dd", "symbol": "GTBP", "name": "GT Biopharma Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.358, "architecture_energy": 64.954, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.13, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.92, "rotation_up": 11.65, "upward_expansion": 15.87, "deceleration": 34.83, "rotation_down": 73.51, "downward_expansion": 89.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.325613, 0.371447, 0.393729, 0.406827 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.3201, "trend_reference": 0.445663, "distance_from_trend": -0.281745, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.807878, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.885999, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -53.644641, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.406012, "excess_performance": -0.593466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.281745, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202692, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.885999, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007449, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.536446, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.196441, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.406012, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.771318, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1917623, "relative_activity": 0.339071, "balance": 1.771318, "dry_up": 0.565591, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.293586, "annualized_volatility": 0.794813, "from_high_reference": -0.820158, "from_low_reference": 0.226437 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.445663, "fair_value_reference": 2.807878, "structural_low": 0.261, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": -0.091646, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.104595, "regime_survival": 0.938776, "best_return": 0.392545, "worst_return": -0.543478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.338649, "positive_rate": 0.133333, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": -0.371482, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.266094, "worst_return": -0.512234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.502067, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.62233, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.163366, "worst_return": -0.748634, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176282, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073944, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.488701, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.251397, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": 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"direction": -44.821353, "energy": 23.854668, "activity_lines": [ 0.417927, 0.4353, 0.42207, 0.438222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.3243, "volume": 2296996, "typical_volume": 5787463.4, "trend": 0.475013, "fair_value": 2.910714, "relative_strength": -55.351688, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.933314, "energy": 38.070631, "activity_lines": [ 0.37958, 0.414405, 0.413082, 0.427406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.2935, "volume": 2559783, "typical_volume": 5727066.55, "trend": 0.45756, "fair_value": 2.86123, "relative_strength": -57.622465, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.695748, "energy": 61.299866, "activity_lines": [ 0.343613, 0.389176, 0.40185, 0.415695 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.3201, "volume": 1917623, "typical_volume": 5655519.7, "trend": 0.445663, "fair_value": 2.807878, "relative_strength": -53.644641, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.358276, "energy": 64.954205, "activity_lines": [ 0.325613, 0.371447, 0.393729, 0.406827 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }