{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1cc0bf8-0b43-43c3-b4d4-a585550bd199", "symbol": "HUBTOWN", "name": "Hubtown Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.903, "architecture_energy": 68.031, "architecture_maturity": 35.372, "architecture_confidence": 84.362, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.43, "rotation_up": 14.86, "upward_expansion": 18.36, "deceleration": 31.75, "rotation_down": 71.87, "downward_expansion": 87.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 188.994668, 195.419272, 199.740952, 201.150322 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 175.110001, "trend_reference": 204.126333, "distance_from_trend": -0.142149, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 204.875385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.145285, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.848171, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.201832, "excess_performance": -0.158123, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142149, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1172, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.145285, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325856, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.278482, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184711, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.201832, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.026658, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2985351, "relative_activity": 1.21098, "balance": 0.026658, "dry_up": 1.005573, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083895, "annualized_volatility": 0.362864, "from_high_reference": -0.521165, "from_low_reference": 0.041392 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 204.126333, "fair_value_reference": 204.875385, "structural_low": 168.149994, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.007927, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.012699, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.284101, "worst_return": -0.251325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.01766, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.078459, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.884921, "worst_return": -0.284188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.047785, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.049242, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.328643, "worst_return": 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"trend": 206.055333, "fair_value": 204.051923, "relative_strength": -21.759072, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.064273, "energy": 39.068495, "activity_lines": [ 197.800001, 200.069999, 202.273428, 203.146795 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 175.110001, "volume": 2985351, "typical_volume": 2465235.2, "trend": 204.126333, "fair_value": 204.875385, "relative_strength": -27.848171, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.902789, "energy": 68.030951, "activity_lines": [ 188.994668, 195.419272, 199.740952, 201.150322 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }