{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1cdd1f6-c1cb-4c34-ae63-f9c5883d12cd", "symbol": "ABEV3", "name": "Ambev S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.753, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.451, "architecture_energy": 10.943, "architecture_maturity": 13.63, "architecture_confidence": 78.901, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.38, "rotation_up": 15.96, "upward_expansion": 44.46, "deceleration": 84.63, "rotation_down": 38.75, "downward_expansion": 29.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.690667, 15.887257, 15.890471, 15.763309 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.48, "trend_reference": 15.585498, "distance_from_trend": -0.006769, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.454594, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.242915, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.342592, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.003891, "excess_performance": 0.060939, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006769, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062214, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.242915, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094347, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.053426, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022591, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003891, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.123139, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 149690800, "relative_activity": 1.389981, "balance": 1.123139, "dry_up": 1.365449, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048212, "annualized_volatility": 0.295778, "from_high_reference": -0.08902, "from_low_reference": 0.38626 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.585498, "fair_value_reference": 12.454594, "structural_low": 14.280236, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.015592, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.043285, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.079256, "worst_return": -0.074556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.028707, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.112226, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055134, "worst_return": -0.141419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.05217, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.123601, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.223408, "worst_return": -0.11471, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.010364, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.070447, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163895, "worst_return": -0.013227, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104412, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015004, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000902, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.207373, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006098, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003811, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085735, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017442, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088235, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", 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"relative_strength": 5.562327, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.348935, "energy": 18.266395, "activity_lines": [ 15.984362, 16.109881, 15.877209, 15.716115 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.64, "volume": 106865100, "typical_volume": 104434660.0, "trend": 15.454832, "fair_value": 12.410413, "relative_strength": 5.587651, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.446265, "energy": 15.942889, "activity_lines": [ 15.832667, 16.023684, 15.878471, 15.73219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.99, "volume": 214187000, "typical_volume": 108876295.0, "trend": 15.532832, "fair_value": 12.43319, "relative_strength": 5.524263, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.505656, "energy": 16.524763, "activity_lines": [ 15.822, 16.001241, 15.911114, 15.766717 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.48, "volume": 149690800, "typical_volume": 107692680.0, "trend": 15.585498, "fair_value": 12.454594, "relative_strength": 5.342592, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.450635, "energy": 10.943008, "activity_lines": [ 15.690667, 15.887257, 15.890471, 15.763309 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }