{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1d61896-f6b2-473a-b204-c1b0a6197980", "symbol": "000591", "name": "CECEP Solar Energy Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.936, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.269, "architecture_energy": 49.643, "architecture_maturity": 27.434, "architecture_confidence": 91.077, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.6, "rotation_up": 21.03, "upward_expansion": 7.79, "deceleration": 54.95, "rotation_down": 56.51, "downward_expansion": 81.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.443333, 4.497952, 4.844995, 5.063958 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.45, "trend_reference": 5.254572, "distance_from_trend": -0.153118, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.813232, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.075465, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.887679, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.171322, "excess_performance": -0.178722, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153118, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007091, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.075465, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14862, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128877, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02647, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.171322, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.204662, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 220295113, "relative_activity": 0.475913, "balance": 1.204662, "dry_up": 0.593596, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097648, "annualized_volatility": 0.439312, "from_high_reference": -0.345588, "from_low_reference": 0.080097 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.254572, "fair_value_reference": 4.813232, "structural_low": 4.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.00142, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": -0.002828, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.154034, "worst_return": -0.240045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.058082, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.01741, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.22069, "worst_return": -0.183014, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033277, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.071169, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.040801, "worst_return": -0.222981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 4.510679, 4.885382, 5.165512, 5.271289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.42, "volume": 288428910, "typical_volume": 605707181.3, "trend": 5.251361, "fair_value": 4.847081, "relative_strength": -10.91568, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.11992, "energy": 79.833011, "activity_lines": [ 4.44048, 4.75107, 5.07124, 5.217763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.39, "volume": 365669642, "typical_volume": 569936172.25, "trend": 5.250428, "fair_value": 4.834833, "relative_strength": -11.534155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.421416, "energy": 77.481973, "activity_lines": [ 4.402596, 4.627121, 4.980825, 5.162192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.53, "volume": 224682249, "typical_volume": 501853051.4, "trend": 5.25219, "fair_value": 4.823661, "relative_strength": -7.02798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.222608, "energy": 59.291706, "activity_lines": [ 4.435756, 4.558082, 4.912601, 5.115712 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.45, "volume": 220295113, "typical_volume": 462889133.75, "trend": 5.254572, "fair_value": 4.813232, "relative_strength": -12.887679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.268887, "energy": 49.642752, "activity_lines": [ 4.443333, 4.497952, 4.844995, 5.063958 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }