{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c1d7087b-e3e6-44a4-a1e4-6da5defb078b",
    "symbol": "KOMP",
    "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P KENSHO NEW ECONOMIES COMPOSITE ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 86.375,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 26.516,
    "architecture_energy": 17.54,
    "architecture_maturity": 49.533,
    "architecture_confidence": 83.304,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 49.76,
        "rotation_up": 24.94,
        "upward_expansion": 47.09,
        "deceleration": 83.85,
        "rotation_down": 36.36,
        "downward_expansion": 29.75
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        67.4577,
        67.943073,
        68.249855,
        66.927322
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 70.59,
    "trend_reference": 65.517379,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.077424,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 52.055904,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.356042,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -0.634521,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.124887,
    "excess_performance": -0.000738,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.077424,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040782,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.356042,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008565,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.006345,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.027247,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.124887,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.176916,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 348500,
      "relative_activity": 0.848114,
      "balance": 1.176916,
      "dry_up": 0.759575,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.058308,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.231744,
      "from_high_reference": -0.065039,
      "from_low_reference": 0.295573
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 65.517379,
      "fair_value_reference": 52.055904,
      "structural_low": 55.6901,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.043782,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.014187,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.078666,
        "worst_return": -0.052807,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.010956,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.018145,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.042326,
        "worst_return": -0.131019,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.100634,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.019912,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.222002,
        "worst_return": 0.100117,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.239222,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.013421,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.298002,
        "worst_return": 0.180442,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.052507,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.057009,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.021659,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.127232,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.188297,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.077023,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.02272,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.062168,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.058521,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.027524,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.076867,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "return": 0.004099,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": 0.021006,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "return": 0.031503,
        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "typical_volume": 405669.45,
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        "fair_value": 49.311859,
        "relative_strength": 3.253597,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "fair_value": 49.653239,
        "relative_strength": 1.832017,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 382611.05,
        "trend": 62.217074,
        "fair_value": 49.839516,
        "relative_strength": 2.090165,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "energy": 76.146001,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 67.749322,
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        "typical_volume": 386889.55,
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        "fair_value": 50.019196,
        "relative_strength": 1.361195,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "direction": 70.352638,
        "energy": 76.343674,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 70.436823,
        "volume": 333428,
        "typical_volume": 388705.4,
        "trend": 62.600391,
        "fair_value": 50.216534,
        "relative_strength": 4.267583,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.990541,
        "energy": 80.573109,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 74.172404,
        "volume": 1122067,
        "typical_volume": 407792.75,
        "trend": 62.950172,
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        "relative_strength": 7.919674,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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          64.214239
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 69.549111,
        "volume": 761542,
        "typical_volume": 426792.4,
        "trend": 63.212319,
        "fair_value": 50.610902,
        "relative_strength": 3.620945,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.114184,
        "energy": 70.540725,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 70.347952,
        "volume": 332723,
        "typical_volume": 431320.95,
        "trend": 63.579417,
        "fair_value": 50.790458,
        "relative_strength": 4.023273,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.133633,
        "energy": 59.444232,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 430766.95,
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        "fair_value": 50.983516,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 423405.75,
        "trend": 64.312278,
        "fair_value": 51.147405,
        "relative_strength": 2.438874,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.103412,
        "energy": 38.967474,
        "activity_lines": [
          70.140033,
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          65.887064
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 69.44,
        "volume": 533631,
        "typical_volume": 425604.0,
        "trend": 64.586913,
        "fair_value": 51.317448,
        "relative_strength": 1.576197,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 43.649046,
        "energy": 31.205327,
        "activity_lines": [
          69.693635,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 68.4341,
        "volume": 497692,
        "typical_volume": 437830.45,
        "trend": 64.837233,
        "fair_value": 51.466241,
        "relative_strength": -1.285445,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 39.040078,
        "energy": 24.800258,
        "activity_lines": [
          69.227431,
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          67.960562,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 65.8457,
        "volume": 340197,
        "typical_volume": 440110.85,
        "trend": 65.016411,
        "fair_value": 51.601401,
        "relative_strength": -3.500329,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 26.413255,
        "energy": 19.07052,
        "activity_lines": [
          67.97276,
          69.061806,
          67.967542,
          66.531153
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 65.41,
        "volume": 275467,
        "typical_volume": 438199.25,
        "trend": 65.169566,
        "fair_value": 51.732196,
        "relative_strength": -3.552673,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 16.791521,
        "energy": 16.932865,
        "activity_lines": [
          66.873007,
          68.303589,
          67.915588,
          66.556546
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 65.64,
        "volume": 284308,
        "typical_volume": 427606.45,
        "trend": 65.313408,
        "fair_value": 51.873624,
        "relative_strength": -4.26699,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 4.083782,
        "energy": 15.028193,
        "activity_lines": [
          66.245687,
          67.629724,
          67.860901,
          66.586897
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 70.59,
        "volume": 348500,
        "typical_volume": 410911.55,
        "trend": 65.517379,
        "fair_value": 52.055904,
        "relative_strength": -0.634521,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 26.515626,
        "energy": 17.539676,
        "activity_lines": [
          67.4577,
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          68.249855,
          66.927322
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}