{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1db890f-31b1-40bb-bf72-98b389384926", "symbol": "4150", "name": "Arriyadh Development Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -84.524, "architecture_energy": 83.327, "architecture_maturity": 15.603, "architecture_confidence": 78.147, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.36, "rotation_up": 11.25, "upward_expansion": 20.01, "deceleration": 34.22, "rotation_down": 76.51, "downward_expansion": 88.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.815333, 17.394363, 17.766746, 17.963603 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.78, "trend_reference": 18.457066, "distance_from_trend": -0.145043, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.464325, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.354979, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.390192, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.203686, "excess_performance": -0.171856, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.145043, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110206, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.354979, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087543, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.283902, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021348, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.203686, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.652817, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3261179, "relative_activity": 2.400152, "balance": 0.652817, "dry_up": 1.584685, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050538, "annualized_volatility": 0.215461, "from_high_reference": -0.532043, "from_low_reference": 0.005096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.457066, "fair_value_reference": 24.464325, 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"energy": 29.027376, "activity_lines": [ 18.100666, 18.177951, 18.169732, 18.503641 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.450001, "volume": 1690474, "typical_volume": 1142571.95, "trend": 19.150451, "fair_value": 24.509962, "relative_strength": -19.886761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.103712, "energy": 23.889418, "activity_lines": [ 18.186, 18.230577, 18.196377, 18.445543 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.379999, "volume": 2474874, "typical_volume": 1219544.05, "trend": 18.985853, "fair_value": 24.505358, "relative_strength": -18.751067, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.327173, "energy": 13.792144, "activity_lines": [ 18.261333, 18.259091, 18.217507, 18.395836 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.799999, "volume": 769348, "typical_volume": 1208893.9, "trend": 18.845323, "fair_value": 24.49799, "relative_strength": -20.974605, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.139043, "energy": 23.803325, "activity_lines": [ 18.139333, 18.174727, 18.180562, 18.319329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.18, "volume": 2107289, "typical_volume": 1238117.3, "trend": 18.628434, "fair_value": 24.482976, "relative_strength": -25.810199, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.183502, "energy": 59.968248, "activity_lines": [ 17.49, 17.800909, 17.988976, 18.147373 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.78, "volume": 3261179, "typical_volume": 1358738.3, "trend": 18.457066, "fair_value": 24.464325, "relative_strength": -28.390192, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.524007, "energy": 83.326653, "activity_lines": [ 16.815333, 17.394363, 17.766746, 17.963603 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }