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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.298, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.927, "architecture_energy": 76.819, "architecture_maturity": 6.872, "architecture_confidence": 77.321, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.91, "rotation_up": 73.55, "upward_expansion": 91.51, "deceleration": 44.76, "rotation_down": 9.19, "downward_expansion": 18.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.130667, 5.019818, 4.903295, 4.846572 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.12, "trend_reference": 4.826113, "distance_from_trend": 0.060895, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.437454, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.153815, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.804756, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.00313, "excess_performance": -0.056441, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060895, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007339, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.153815, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106669, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008048, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013237, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00313, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.118384, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 585, "relative_activity": 0.431687, "balance": 3.118384, "dry_up": 0.965576, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035832, "annualized_volatility": 0.253862, "from_high_reference": -0.041199, "from_low_reference": 0.187182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.826113, "fair_value_reference": 4.437454, "structural_low": 4.312735, "invalidation": 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"fair_value": 4.451535, "relative_strength": -3.338698, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.964091, "energy": 15.628829, "activity_lines": [ 4.721333, 4.7558, 4.708677, 4.741835 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 4.82, "volume": 461, "typical_volume": 1309.2, "trend": 4.77653, "fair_value": 4.446846, "relative_strength": -4.210078, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.000888, "energy": 14.381449, "activity_lines": [ 4.748667, 4.766269, 4.717417, 4.744908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.06, "volume": 2946, "typical_volume": 1382.15, "trend": 4.788043, "fair_value": 4.444176, "relative_strength": 2.537427, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.827414, "energy": 41.321932, "activity_lines": [ 4.858667, 4.818636, 4.749867, 4.763196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.98, "volume": 1041, "typical_volume": 1423.2, "trend": 4.797543, "fair_value": 4.441474, "relative_strength": 0.886882, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.661665, "energy": 49.704405, "activity_lines": [ 4.925333, 4.85, 4.77534, 4.775581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.34, "volume": 2679, "typical_volume": 1457.2, "trend": 4.818063, "fair_value": 4.4412, "relative_strength": 7.547164, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 61.566555, "energy": 76.159883, "activity_lines": [ 5.082667, 4.941636, 4.835655, 4.810578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.08, "volume": 929, "typical_volume": 1408.0, "trend": 4.824035, "fair_value": 4.439499, "relative_strength": 0.724662, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.506932, "energy": 78.220327, "activity_lines": [ 5.109333, 4.979273, 4.868744, 4.827477 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.12, "volume": 585, "typical_volume": 1355.15, "trend": 4.826113, "fair_value": 4.437454, "relative_strength": -0.804756, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.926773, "energy": 76.81915, "activity_lines": [ 5.130667, 5.019818, 4.903295, 4.846572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }