{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1e04ba9-0174-413a-bdc5-df075d14ebfd", "symbol": "CBE", "name": "Robertet SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.964, "architecture_energy": 79.431, "architecture_maturity": 39.485, "architecture_confidence": 93.21, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.5, "rotation_up": 14.79, "upward_expansion": 18.79, "deceleration": 39.33, "rotation_down": 72.49, "downward_expansion": 94.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 659.08667, 664.423643, 675.171911, 683.159359 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 670.0, "trend_reference": 700.520003, "distance_from_trend": -0.043568, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 742.882052, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.098107, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.299801, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.150824, "excess_performance": -0.204135, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043568, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036516, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.098107, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010485, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122998, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05407, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150824, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.228283, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51, "relative_activity": 1.080508, "balance": 0.228283, "dry_up": 1.731992, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016613, "annualized_volatility": 0.407639, "from_high_reference": -0.155959, "from_low_reference": 0.112957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 700.520003, "fair_value_reference": 742.882052, "structural_low": 602.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.000693, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001436, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.089744, "worst_return": -0.072973, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.021442, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.030014, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.132051, "worst_return": -0.114865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0322, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.010462, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.143147, "worst_return": -0.086916, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.007805, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025513, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010799, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047945, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03295, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", 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"down", "direction": -83.088648, "energy": 92.941271, "activity_lines": [ 663.406673, 674.125464, 682.229053, 692.625596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 653.5, "volume": 186, "typical_volume": 49.55, "trend": 707.680003, "fair_value": 744.656411, "relative_strength": -11.506571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.17621, "energy": 91.024714, "activity_lines": [ 656.953337, 669.394553, 679.480005, 688.836778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 653.200012, "volume": 60, "typical_volume": 45.85, "trend": 703.520003, "fair_value": 743.58718, "relative_strength": -12.671039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.971896, "energy": 89.68487, "activity_lines": [ 654.160006, 665.092736, 676.457149, 685.32194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 670.0, "volume": 51, "typical_volume": 47.2, "trend": 700.520003, "fair_value": 742.882052, "relative_strength": -12.299801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.964107, "energy": 79.430749, "activity_lines": [ 659.08667, 664.423643, 675.171911, 683.159359 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }