{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1e52e66-4cc0-4a35-9ea7-db2e6353cff6", "symbol": "MEE", "name": "Me Today Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.479, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.81, "architecture_energy": 25.479, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 61.412, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.06, "rotation_up": 28.57, "upward_expansion": 18.86, "deceleration": 60.63, "rotation_down": 38.95, "downward_expansion": 64.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.047267, 0.047055, 0.0477, 0.049088 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.05, "trend_reference": 0.051533, "distance_from_trend": -0.029754, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.099431, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.497139, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.906012, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.152542, "excess_performance": -0.180816, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029754, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060753, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.497139, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.190737, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14906, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068502, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.152542, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.328724, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 263494, "relative_activity": 4.671536, "balance": 1.328724, "dry_up": 1.776558, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06, "annualized_volatility": 0.40679, "from_high_reference": -0.350649, "from_low_reference": 0.190476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.051533, "fair_value_reference": 0.099431, "structural_low": 0.042, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 54, "median_return": -0.039227, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.574074, "median_excess_return": -0.044052, "regime_survival": 0.944444, "best_return": 0.467391, "worst_return": -0.505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.235294, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": -0.113801, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.638298, "worst_return": -0.75, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.380952, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.36731, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.288462, "worst_return": -0.79, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.709132, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.636215, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.202381, "worst_return": -0.79, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2021-07-23", "end": "2021-08-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081395, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2021-08-27", "end": "2021-09-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077922, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2021-09-17", "end": "2021-09-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-10-01", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.973534, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.255639, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063291, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0875, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.106667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", 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"fair_value": 0.110053, "relative_strength": -28.669602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.073055, "energy": 70.850604, "activity_lines": [ 0.045533, 0.047036, 0.048048, 0.049925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.043, "volume": 4919, "typical_volume": 39330.0, "trend": 0.0519, "fair_value": 0.106482, "relative_strength": -27.973135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.248674, "energy": 84.069225, "activity_lines": [ 0.0444, 0.046164, 0.047429, 0.049329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.05, "volume": 109377, "typical_volume": 43660.65, "trend": 0.051833, "fair_value": 0.102957, "relative_strength": -14.955577, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.887772, "energy": 44.942306, "activity_lines": [ 0.045867, 0.046636, 0.047548, 0.049206 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.05, "volume": 263494, "typical_volume": 56404.15, "trend": 0.051533, "fair_value": 0.099431, "relative_strength": -14.906012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.809665, "energy": 25.47912, "activity_lines": [ 0.047267, 0.047055, 0.0477, 0.049088 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }