{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1e64a6a-96b1-466a-a733-10fa4bd602e8", "symbol": "TFPN", "name": "TIDAL TRUST II BLUEPRINT CHESAPEAKE MULTI ASSET TREND", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.181, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -0.313, "architecture_energy": 14.426, "architecture_maturity": 15.98, "architecture_confidence": 82.072, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.19, "rotation_up": 15.23, "upward_expansion": 41.25, "deceleration": 83.78, "rotation_down": 40.63, "downward_expansion": 35.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.929847, 30.374676, 30.7349, 30.359941 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.595, "trend_reference": 29.786987, "distance_from_trend": -0.006445, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.370796, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.166499, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.695134, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.053214, "excess_performance": -0.072411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006445, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061579, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.166499, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092648, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046951, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132591, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053214, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.794028, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42029, "relative_activity": 0.824493, "balance": 0.794028, "dry_up": 1.509125, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054011, "annualized_volatility": 0.159197, "from_high_reference": -0.112328, "from_low_reference": 0.299166 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.786987, "fair_value_reference": 25.370796, "structural_low": 26.5822, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.01182, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.00885, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.003959, "worst_return": -0.085757, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.020659, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001012, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.079572, "worst_return": -0.12089, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.062386, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020047, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.196544, "worst_return": -0.071772, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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29.699657, "fair_value": 25.339102, "relative_strength": -0.236478, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.209154, "energy": 14.591078, "activity_lines": [ 30.134587, 30.63136, 30.816676, 30.366693 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.595, "volume": 42029, "typical_volume": 50975.55, "trend": 29.786987, "fair_value": 25.370796, "relative_strength": -4.695134, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.313272, "energy": 14.426443, "activity_lines": [ 29.929847, 30.374676, 30.7349, 30.359941 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }