{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1ef500c-b945-43e3-8021-8ccd0fb8f1cb", "symbol": "603138", "name": "Beijing Vastdata Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.266, "architecture_energy": 78.705, "architecture_maturity": 26.59, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.49, "rotation_up": 15.4, "upward_expansion": 19.11, "deceleration": 38.85, "rotation_down": 68.15, "downward_expansion": 92.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.55, 13.175818, 14.965952, 16.217096 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.34, "trend_reference": 17.378333, "distance_from_trend": -0.232377, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.404487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.134019, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.985901, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.244193, "excess_performance": -0.200989, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.232377, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012426, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.134019, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.38646, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189859, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.295127, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.244193, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.279394, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49887989, "relative_activity": 1.02962, "balance": 0.279394, "dry_up": 0.823327, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12882, "annualized_volatility": 0.589544, "from_high_reference": -0.464257, "from_low_reference": 0.235185 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.378333, "fair_value_reference": 15.404487, "structural_low": 10.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.031159, "positive_rate": 0.576923, "directional_follow_through": 0.423077, "median_excess_return": 0.028429, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.306402, "worst_return": -0.32852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.037922, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.084089, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.420339, "worst_return": -0.22324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.053844, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004868, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.980968, "worst_return": -0.299943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"down", "direction": -81.49248, "energy": 91.124891, "activity_lines": [ 12.473333, 13.781273, 15.734428, 16.800967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.48, "volume": 37963382, "typical_volume": 51759881.35, "trend": 17.407666, "fair_value": 15.440064, "relative_strength": -22.400877, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.991559, "energy": 84.652999, "activity_lines": [ 12.318, 13.350364, 15.290619, 16.479527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.34, "volume": 49887989, "typical_volume": 48452793.9, "trend": 17.378333, "fair_value": 15.404487, "relative_strength": -18.985901, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.266105, "energy": 78.704737, "activity_lines": [ 12.55, 13.175818, 14.965952, 16.217096 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }