{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1f6942c-2159-4f18-ab7d-01ec57e43173", "symbol": "CRD-B", "name": "Crawford & Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.698, "architecture_energy": 49.034, "architecture_maturity": 25.418, "architecture_confidence": 85.328, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.22, "rotation_up": 50.91, "upward_expansion": 75.1, "deceleration": 57.11, "rotation_down": 23.01, "downward_expansion": 15.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.889333, 10.674727, 10.404307, 10.285011 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.43, "trend_reference": 10.207601, "distance_from_trend": 0.21772, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.8794, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258174, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.501706, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.184835, "excess_performance": 0.05921, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.21772, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005746, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.258174, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.297208, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.085017, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.263394, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.184835, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.975313, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53750, "relative_activity": 1.912822, "balance": 1.975313, "dry_up": 1.146154, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083601, "annualized_volatility": 0.419922, "from_high_reference": -0.001606, "from_low_reference": 0.448599 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.207601, "fair_value_reference": 9.8794, "structural_low": 8.714834, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.009557, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.006084, "regime_survival": 0.47619, "best_return": 0.304339, "worst_return": -0.146295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.056802, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.017554, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.349371, "worst_return": -0.142631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.000561, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.092825, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.597276, "worst_return": -0.311977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.131011, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.101114, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.329453, "worst_return": -0.238656, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006424, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104384, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008156, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057518, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064428, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017235, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.092312, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033059, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043154, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": 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"activity_lines": [ 10.448, 10.375258, 10.160807, 10.143044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.23, "volume": 37331, "typical_volume": 30772.5, "trend": 10.173633, "fair_value": 9.816919, "relative_strength": -7.25941, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.343382, "energy": 7.088568, "activity_lines": [ 10.347333, 10.381017, 10.17718, 10.146056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.11, "volume": 19398, "typical_volume": 29948.5, "trend": 10.142876, "fair_value": 9.835953, "relative_strength": -7.507762, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.472429, "energy": 3.906513, "activity_lines": [ 10.244, 10.347876, 10.180392, 10.14195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.07, "volume": 18348, "typical_volume": 28701.85, "trend": 10.139682, "fair_value": 9.850613, "relative_strength": -8.726467, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.257006, "energy": 7.585811, "activity_lines": [ 10.147333, 10.294909, 10.181423, 10.137248 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.43, "volume": 53750, "typical_volume": 28099.85, "trend": 10.207601, "fair_value": 9.8794, "relative_strength": 8.501706, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.698265, "energy": 49.034148, "activity_lines": [ 10.889333, 10.674727, 10.404307, 10.285011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }