{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1f9842c-e076-430c-b2cb-d59320f8982c", "symbol": "GDL", "name": "GDL Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.572, "architecture_energy": 23.652, "architecture_maturity": 54.383, "architecture_confidence": 69.068, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.86, "rotation_up": 37.08, "upward_expansion": 63.63, "deceleration": 84.13, "rotation_down": 24.01, "downward_expansion": 13.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.416507, 8.421626, 8.394441, 8.361314 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.43, "trend_reference": 8.322261, "distance_from_trend": 0.012946, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.532748, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.119113, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.903794, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.019156, "excess_performance": -0.106469, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012946, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010121, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.119113, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016344, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089038, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007974, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019156, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.825853, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28545, "relative_activity": 0.710896, "balance": 0.825853, "dry_up": 0.87313, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01246, "annualized_volatility": 0.043367, "from_high_reference": -0.008235, "from_low_reference": 0.082694 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.322261, "fair_value_reference": 7.532748, "structural_low": 8.12408, "invalidation": 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"fair_value": 7.510489, "relative_strength": -5.246119, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.303206, "energy": 38.758348, "activity_lines": [ 8.43668, 8.421929, 8.381738, 8.349149 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.38, "volume": 27239, "typical_volume": 42670.25, "trend": 8.314711, "fair_value": 7.521673, "relative_strength": -6.509764, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.002082, "energy": 25.319171, "activity_lines": [ 8.415427, 8.417586, 8.385944, 8.353876 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.43, "volume": 28545, "typical_volume": 40153.55, "trend": 8.322261, "fair_value": 7.532748, "relative_strength": -8.903794, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.572109, "energy": 23.652101, "activity_lines": [ 8.416507, 8.421626, 8.394441, 8.361314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }