{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c1ff93e6-e386-4e3b-9920-ee82f932fb9a", "symbol": "DXS", "name": "DEXUS", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.2, "architecture_energy": 34.033, "architecture_maturity": 16.076, "architecture_confidence": 70.236, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.03, "rotation_up": 13.65, "upward_expansion": 10.57, "deceleration": 55.06, "rotation_down": 56.42, "downward_expansion": 64.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.713333, 5.779273, 5.743441, 5.797355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.54, "trend_reference": 5.914059, "distance_from_trend": -0.063249, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.513842, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.149503, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.943912, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.090312, "excess_performance": -0.104714, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063249, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052366, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.149503, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017609, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119439, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021414, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.090312, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.9039, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16024367, "relative_activity": 1.647798, "balance": 0.9039, "dry_up": 2.05409, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036922, "annualized_volatility": 0.25381, "from_high_reference": -0.263315, "from_low_reference": 0.078422 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.914059, "fair_value_reference": 6.513842, "structural_low": 5.137136, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.013793, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.013044, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.087028, "worst_return": -0.110476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.001225, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051899, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064516, "worst_return": -0.133197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.019376, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.039046, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.055288, "worst_return": -0.192806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.075564, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.115662, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.086855, "worst_return": -0.163058, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087798, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065553, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02095, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024084, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025199, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023192, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055172, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010989, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", 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5.874041 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 5.88, "volume": 2146543, "typical_volume": 7988380.65, "trend": 6.021392, "fair_value": 6.534835, "relative_strength": -12.002019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.359606, "energy": 18.864817, "activity_lines": [ 5.91, 5.799085, 5.781618, 5.862553 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 5.74, "volume": 22989464, "typical_volume": 8632580.55, "trend": 5.986725, "fair_value": 6.52963, "relative_strength": -13.143239, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.624207, "energy": 18.767291, "activity_lines": [ 5.868, 5.799948, 5.772609, 5.844399 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 5.8, "volume": 22544991, "typical_volume": 9281470.8, "trend": 5.956059, "fair_value": 6.524146, "relative_strength": -12.149381, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.410458, "energy": 13.238578, "activity_lines": [ 5.847333, 5.811509, 5.769791, 5.832352 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 5.81, "volume": 18342934, "typical_volume": 9670323.05, "trend": 5.936392, "fair_value": 6.519666, "relative_strength": -10.773429, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.710405, "energy": 13.477329, "activity_lines": [ 5.819333, 5.822, 5.768735, 5.822929 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 5.54, "volume": 16024367, "typical_volume": 9724713.2, "trend": 5.914059, "fair_value": 6.513842, "relative_strength": -11.943912, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.200384, "energy": 34.033377, "activity_lines": [ 5.713333, 5.779273, 5.743441, 5.797355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }