{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c202c636-6203-4e21-9349-3079f8f77a26", "symbol": "300566", "name": "Ningbo Exciton Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.649, "architecture_energy": 25.722, "architecture_maturity": 72.953, "architecture_confidence": 94.091, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.99, "rotation_up": 20.27, "upward_expansion": 54.5, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 43.18, "downward_expansion": 22.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.325334, 28.02746, 26.679431, 24.941153 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 26.950001, "trend_reference": 22.947686, "distance_from_trend": 0.17441, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.081997, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.490433, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 24.018221, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.392045, "excess_performance": 0.384646, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.17441, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.189697, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.490433, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.310411, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.240182, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.369425, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.392045, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.232824, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104779727, "relative_activity": 1.559728, "balance": 1.232824, "dry_up": 1.653514, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.197383, "annualized_volatility": 0.706043, "from_high_reference": -0.319101, "from_low_reference": 0.566712 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.947686, "fair_value_reference": 18.081997, "structural_low": 17.20163, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.036182, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.025325, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.602982, "worst_return": -0.213109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.136015, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.007151, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.680564, "worst_return": -0.350211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.237223, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.114955, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.456739, "worst_return": -0.348366, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"fair_value": 17.994315, "relative_strength": 16.859631, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.068988, "energy": 31.291393, "activity_lines": [ 28.575334, 29.728937, 26.622817, 24.717414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.73, "volume": 98041961, "typical_volume": 63671118.0, "trend": 22.66102, "fair_value": 18.016812, "relative_strength": 5.588563, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.188142, "energy": 22.955652, "activity_lines": [ 25.745334, 28.392845, 26.405338, 24.664445 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.950001, "volume": 104779727, "typical_volume": 67178194.7, "trend": 22.947686, "fair_value": 18.081997, "relative_strength": 24.018221, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.649119, "energy": 25.7224, "activity_lines": [ 25.325334, 28.02746, 26.679431, 24.941153 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }