{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c20e95b0-db56-4a3a-8ca2-ee3062856362", "symbol": "MDXH", "name": "MDxHealth SA ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.633, "architecture_energy": 66.574, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.72, "rotation_up": 29.99, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.84, "rotation_down": 57.9, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.43524, 0.451575, 0.72896, 1.206694 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.461, "trend_reference": 1.90017, "distance_from_trend": -0.75739, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.595565, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.822389, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -85.56246, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.869405, "excess_performance": -1.056859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.75739, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.349055, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.822389, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.522824, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.855625, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.391668, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.869405, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.227309, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1200292, "relative_activity": 0.404013, "balance": 0.227309, "dry_up": 0.470634, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.434749, "annualized_volatility": 1.27579, "from_high_reference": -0.913508, "from_low_reference": 0.1525 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.90017, "fair_value_reference": 2.595565, "structural_low": 0.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.006711, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.028094, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.238938, "worst_return": -0.61342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.081731, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.154959, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.42246, "worst_return": -0.828165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.078818, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.190465, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 1.40107, "worst_return": -0.267148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.175159, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.367089, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.16, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035354, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.102703, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.41, "volume": 1098005, "typical_volume": 2908320.05, "trend": 2.09387, "fair_value": 2.637558, "relative_strength": -86.877546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.377766, "energy": 69.175526, "activity_lines": [ 0.4366, 0.482015, 0.896437, 1.413683 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.418, "volume": 796149, "typical_volume": 2932691.2, "trend": 1.99347, "fair_value": 2.616456, "relative_strength": -86.47846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.420912, "energy": 68.02678, "activity_lines": [ 0.42846, 0.459413, 0.804027, 1.305563 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.461, "volume": 1200292, "typical_volume": 2970924.6, "trend": 1.90017, "fair_value": 2.595565, "relative_strength": -85.56246, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.633466, "energy": 66.573556, "activity_lines": [ 0.43524, 0.451575, 0.72896, 1.206694 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }