{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c21f133d-c117-4253-a389-53d36407be96", "symbol": "VFEA", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets UCITS ETF USD Accumulation", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.596, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.335, "architecture_energy": 30.23, "architecture_maturity": 51.125, "architecture_confidence": 88.099, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.73, "rotation_up": 37.57, "upward_expansion": 60.49, "deceleration": 85.23, "rotation_down": 26.42, "downward_expansion": 19.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.720665, 75.766908, 75.195428, 74.115999 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 76.989998, "trend_reference": 72.884999, "distance_from_trend": 0.056322, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 60.681538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.268755, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.465206, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.082841, "excess_performance": 0.018201, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056322, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038381, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.268755, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019079, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014652, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106043, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082841, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.017918, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82605, "relative_activity": 1.082684, "balance": 2.017918, "dry_up": 1.12496, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026067, "annualized_volatility": 0.152914, "from_high_reference": -0.006196, "from_low_reference": 0.23639 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.884999, "fair_value_reference": 60.681538, "structural_low": 65.769997, "invalidation": "A 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76.392666, 75.812908, 74.388238, 73.330322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 74.099998, "volume": 107473, "typical_volume": 79583.4, "trend": 72.159999, "fair_value": 60.201859, "relative_strength": 4.276376, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.910386, "energy": 41.521295, "activity_lines": [ 75.682665, 75.57509, 74.500428, 73.470967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.110001, "volume": 67752, "typical_volume": 76990.65, "trend": 72.433666, "fair_value": 60.350064, "relative_strength": 4.262276, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.921467, "energy": 32.970621, "activity_lines": [ 75.394666, 75.544908, 74.699428, 73.66129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 75.139999, "volume": 85492, "typical_volume": 75945.3, "trend": 72.648333, "fair_value": 60.50609, "relative_strength": 1.934021, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.268774, "energy": 24.320319, "activity_lines": [ 75.246666, 75.496181, 74.872999, 73.835892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.989998, "volume": 82605, "typical_volume": 76296.5, "trend": 72.884999, "fair_value": 60.681538, "relative_strength": 1.465206, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.334703, "energy": 30.230147, "activity_lines": [ 75.720665, 75.766908, 75.195428, 74.115999 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }