{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2230b2b-fa20-422a-853d-69595eddbe2f", "symbol": "QTEC", "name": "FIRST TRUST NASDAQ-100-TECHNOLOGY SECTOR INDEX FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.253, "architecture_energy": 25.38, "architecture_maturity": 75.39, "architecture_confidence": 89.268, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.74, "rotation_up": 28.54, "upward_expansion": 58.95, "deceleration": 88.26, "rotation_down": 28.24, "downward_expansion": 20.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 305.614, 309.669511, 304.035687, 287.970955 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 316.59, "trend_reference": 268.324566, "distance_from_trend": 0.179877, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 206.303359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.534585, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.16491, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.387457, "excess_performance": 0.200004, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.179877, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110988, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.534585, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003032, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.111649, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021262, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.387457, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.615675, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1342985, "relative_activity": 1.033414, "balance": 0.615675, "dry_up": 1.002548, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070815, "annualized_volatility": 0.300715, "from_high_reference": -0.069388, "from_low_reference": 0.540059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 268.324566, "fair_value_reference": 206.303359, "structural_low": 205.5701, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.028143, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.010797, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.157741, "worst_return": -0.140553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.027019, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.007789, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.217488, "worst_return": -0.123585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.188678, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.046647, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.395306, "worst_return": -0.091671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.17089, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11965, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020233, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035576, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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297.297977, 280.263796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 295.2, "volume": 1465070, "typical_volume": 1290231.4, "trend": 263.540233, "fair_value": 204.243527, "relative_strength": 10.18452, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.87408, "energy": 31.387145, "activity_lines": [ 305.756, 311.590437, 299.120468, 282.435243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 298.52, "volume": 1170760, "typical_volume": 1300606.2, "trend": 265.766233, "fair_value": 205.199287, "relative_strength": 10.520991, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.340516, "energy": 23.052944, "activity_lines": [ 302.084667, 308.932072, 300.905958, 284.692002 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 316.59, "volume": 1342985, "typical_volume": 1299561.45, "trend": 268.324566, "fair_value": 206.303359, "relative_strength": 11.16491, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.252813, "energy": 25.379754, "activity_lines": [ 305.614, 309.669511, 304.035687, 287.970955 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }