{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c226d048-2666-4914-bd3f-1b28ba81d2a8", "symbol": "AVT", "name": "Avenir Telecom S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.137, "architecture_energy": 10.39, "architecture_maturity": 21.893, "architecture_confidence": 95.771, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.21, "rotation_up": 21.79, "upward_expansion": 45.06, "deceleration": 91.03, "rotation_down": 30.22, "downward_expansion": 24.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.093387, 0.094387, 0.094312, 0.09386 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.093, "trend_reference": 0.09083, "distance_from_trend": 0.023891, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.087165, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.066937, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 29.808715, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.138889, "excess_performance": -0.1922, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023891, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.294612, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.066937, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110654, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.298087, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.422115, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138889, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.790484, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 754966, "relative_activity": 0.716156, "balance": 1.790484, "dry_up": 0.690709, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104384, "annualized_volatility": 0.436041, "from_high_reference": -0.415094, "from_low_reference": 2.019481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.09083, "fair_value_reference": 0.087165, "structural_low": 0.08, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.030797, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": -0.044632, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 2.162651, "worst_return": -0.401235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.192398, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.186869, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.601156, "worst_return": -0.425926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.33955, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.32781, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.393617, "worst_return": -0.912654, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.673659, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.763409, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.486978, "worst_return": -0.86034, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-04-28", "end": "2023-06-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.220339, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-06-09", "end": "2023-06-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067403, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2023-07-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.080376, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-07-21", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064373, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.21814, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058065, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.102464, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.218891, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.635317, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 1205692.45, "trend": 0.086843, "fair_value": 0.088317, "relative_strength": 39.768818, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.192824, "energy": 13.243883, "activity_lines": [ 0.09396, 0.09566, 0.094349, 0.093181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0932, "volume": 825453, "typical_volume": 1151482.7, "trend": 0.088843, "fair_value": 0.08779, "relative_strength": 35.196036, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.152008, "energy": 11.128934, "activity_lines": [ 0.093813, 0.095085, 0.094339, 0.093591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.093, "volume": 754966, "typical_volume": 1054192.0, "trend": 0.09083, "fair_value": 0.087165, "relative_strength": 29.808715, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.13743, "energy": 10.3901, "activity_lines": [ 0.093387, 0.094387, 0.094312, 0.09386 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }