{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2287cf2-0c5e-4d64-a5e3-d08d9775d732", "symbol": "605108", "name": "Tongqinglou Catering Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.553, "architecture_energy": 48.817, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.735, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.24, "rotation_up": 27.82, "upward_expansion": 21.25, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 42.88, "downward_expansion": 71.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.224667, 12.071597, 12.888398, 13.979332 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.65, "trend_reference": 15.585886, "distance_from_trend": -0.188368, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.040161, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.426048, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.924227, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.352279, "excess_performance": -0.309075, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.188368, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1365, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.426048, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079769, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269242, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003073, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.352279, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.56271, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19317586, "relative_activity": 1.534147, "balance": 0.56271, "dry_up": 1.802205, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076552, "annualized_volatility": 0.342212, "from_high_reference": -0.494, "from_low_reference": 0.148955 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.585886, "fair_value_reference": 22.040161, "structural_low": 11.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.017908, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.027938, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.32466, "worst_return": -0.164128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.057058, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.045261, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.76452, "worst_return": -0.302351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.006947, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.073356, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.450126, "worst_return": -0.462099, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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13.801285, 15.027195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.01, "volume": 13334448, "typical_volume": 10475919.3, "trend": 16.345886, "fair_value": 22.462994, "relative_strength": -29.465551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.888021, "energy": 67.277352, "activity_lines": [ 11.810942, 12.187773, 13.513872, 14.731546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.1, "volume": 13840925, "typical_volume": 10441496.0, "trend": 16.028552, "fair_value": 22.312966, "relative_strength": -34.968791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.625272, "energy": 70.485392, "activity_lines": [ 11.579224, 11.908381, 13.173746, 14.393102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.77, "volume": 44278640, "typical_volume": 12149824.85, "trend": 15.804886, "fair_value": 22.179566, "relative_strength": -24.861327, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.033271, "energy": 61.156134, "activity_lines": [ 11.969413, 11.992807, 13.025334, 14.182873 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.65, "volume": 19317586, "typical_volume": 12591744.0, "trend": 15.585886, "fair_value": 22.040161, "relative_strength": -26.924227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.553464, "energy": 48.816612, "activity_lines": [ 12.224667, 12.071597, 12.888398, 13.979332 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }