{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c22c91ec-fe40-4843-a0c7-50e496bb1717", "symbol": "6833", "name": "T-Conn Precision Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.16, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.048, "architecture_energy": 42.412, "architecture_maturity": 8.834, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.37, "rotation_up": 18.98, "upward_expansion": 7.67, "deceleration": 43.77, "rotation_down": 47.01, "downward_expansion": 76.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.61, 22.746101, 23.714483, 24.104618 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.85, "trend_reference": 24.319519, "distance_from_trend": -0.060426, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.030691, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.184822, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.495599, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.156827, "excess_performance": -0.598199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060426, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00132, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.184822, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088499, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.344956, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051147, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.156827, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.351999, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26113, "relative_activity": 0.10488, "balance": 0.351999, "dry_up": 0.290722, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085186, "annualized_volatility": 0.45283, "from_high_reference": -0.315868, "from_low_reference": 0.139651 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.319519, "fair_value_reference": 28.030691, "structural_low": 20.049999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.01629, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.02312, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.30719, "worst_return": -0.37904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.030142, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.06186, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.184657, "worst_return": -0.449667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.043333, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.22859, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.07732, "worst_return": -0.341797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.835275, "energy": 37.76634, "activity_lines": [ 23.025706, 23.822064, 24.683664, 24.644248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.299999, "volume": 53356, "typical_volume": 284010.0, "trend": 24.349519, "fair_value": 28.264107, "relative_strength": -32.581535, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.161663, "energy": 39.08723, "activity_lines": [ 23.086666, 23.575962, 24.545637, 24.576859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.65, "volume": 123675, "typical_volume": 281645.3, "trend": 24.332853, "fair_value": 28.212481, "relative_strength": -34.963638, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.815015, "energy": 34.723786, "activity_lines": [ 22.943333, 23.278951, 24.353801, 24.467213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.700001, "volume": 79880, "typical_volume": 278747.55, "trend": 24.322853, "fair_value": 28.143386, "relative_strength": -35.974141, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.300873, "energy": 50.328552, "activity_lines": [ 22.553333, 22.888305, 24.068631, 24.297351 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.799999, "volume": 59868, "typical_volume": 268793.75, "trend": 24.314519, "fair_value": 28.084418, "relative_strength": -33.352199, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.060751, "energy": 46.847888, "activity_lines": [ 22.566666, 22.786748, 23.888224, 24.199103 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 22.85, "volume": 26113, "typical_volume": 248979.85, "trend": 24.319519, "fair_value": 28.030691, "relative_strength": -34.495599, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.047552, "energy": 42.412017, "activity_lines": [ 22.61, 22.746101, 23.714483, 24.104618 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }