{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c22df54b-1fd5-4654-a5de-2e14d3453d20", "symbol": "OLMA", "name": "Olema Pharmaceuticals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.72, "architecture_energy": 34.108, "architecture_maturity": 94.637, "architecture_confidence": 82.504, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.58, "rotation_up": 27.05, "upward_expansion": 16.64, "deceleration": 46.64, "rotation_down": 33.01, "downward_expansion": 61.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.733333, 11.568, 12.143905, 13.484817 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.05, "trend_reference": 16.127333, "distance_from_trend": -0.252821, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.706442, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029348, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.4387, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.524842, "excess_performance": -0.712296, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.252821, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.203641, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.029348, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.277784, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.334387, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.243113, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.524842, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.684209, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4208699, "relative_activity": 0.695555, "balance": 0.684209, "dry_up": 0.738014, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141365, "annualized_volatility": 0.79263, "from_high_reference": -0.66767, "from_low_reference": 1.695749 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.127333, "fair_value_reference": 11.706442, "structural_low": 9.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.031651, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.003227, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.922449, "worst_return": -0.308054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.028613, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.142841, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.501832, "worst_return": -0.346667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.075954, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.055286, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.076923, "worst_return": -0.382222, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 11.156, 11.663636, 13.165667, 15.409161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.91, "volume": 6801121, "typical_volume": 7650239.1, "trend": 18.155667, "fair_value": 11.647724, "relative_strength": -32.736906, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.299399, "energy": 55.421539, "activity_lines": [ 11.544667, 11.585455, 12.87519, 14.960753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.47, "volume": 5666317, "typical_volume": 7623912.65, "trend": 17.607, "fair_value": 11.661955, "relative_strength": -32.865671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.294176, "energy": 41.875045, "activity_lines": [ 11.68, 11.471091, 12.600762, 14.529419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.7, "volume": 3637197, "typical_volume": 7500387.55, "trend": 17.122667, "fair_value": 11.682981, "relative_strength": -30.882022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.086264, "energy": 37.020159, "activity_lines": [ 11.785333, 11.460909, 12.408857, 14.148323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.45, "volume": 4350238, "typical_volume": 6590938.9, "trend": 16.661667, "fair_value": 11.696378, "relative_strength": -33.091819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.419475, "energy": 37.7677, "activity_lines": [ 11.661333, 11.439636, 12.240048, 13.782344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.05, "volume": 4208699, "typical_volume": 6050849.2, "trend": 16.127333, "fair_value": 11.706442, "relative_strength": -33.4387, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.71957, "energy": 34.107823, "activity_lines": [ 11.733333, 11.568, 12.143905, 13.484817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }