{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c23411b7-54a3-4e03-be8b-75e2fe17d640", "symbol": "CLON", "name": "Clontarf Energy plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.924, "architecture_energy": 16.588, "architecture_maturity": 49.768, "architecture_confidence": 71.902, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.27, "rotation_up": 25.26, "upward_expansion": 16.4, "deceleration": 54.25, "rotation_down": 40.93, "downward_expansion": 64.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.000195, 0.000194, 0.000196, 0.000202 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.00019, "trend_reference": 0.000213, "distance_from_trend": -0.109375, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.000397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.521318, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.92914, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.269231, "excess_performance": -0.320466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.109375, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047619, "read": "Falling" 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0.00016, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.040816, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.057527, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.293103, "worst_return": -0.24, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.085106, "positive_rate": 0.133333, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.116103, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.105263, "worst_return": -0.730233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.210526, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.294639, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.753191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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0.0002, 0.000207 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.00019, "volume": 24090461, "typical_volume": 52005621.85, "trend": 0.000215, "fair_value": 0.000407, "relative_strength": -25.759747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.589461, "energy": 16.566255, "activity_lines": [ 0.000199, 0.000195, 0.000198, 0.000205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00019, "volume": 6789272, "typical_volume": 45269912.65, "trend": 0.000214, "fair_value": 0.000402, "relative_strength": -25.592005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.586414, "energy": 17.177084, "activity_lines": [ 0.000197, 0.000195, 0.000197, 0.000204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00019, "volume": 15783200, "typical_volume": 42799717.5, "trend": 0.000213, "fair_value": 0.000397, "relative_strength": -24.92914, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.92369, "energy": 16.587638, "activity_lines": [ 0.000195, 0.000194, 0.000196, 0.000202 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }