{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c234261e-40b9-49f2-94da-e193d7df5959", "symbol": "PSRW", "name": "Invesco RAFI All-World Fundamental Value UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.587, "architecture_energy": 71.154, "architecture_maturity": 88.774, "architecture_confidence": 74.605, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 59.28, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.5, "rotation_down": 28.97, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.267999, 35.111226, 34.548912, 33.864347 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 35.674999, "trend_reference": 33.01873, "distance_from_trend": 0.080447, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.7188, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.335202, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.977525, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.124747, "excess_performance": -0.046145, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080447, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05794, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.335202, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031359, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019775, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023635, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.124747, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.636685, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4093, "relative_activity": 0.619443, "balance": 7.636685, "dry_up": 1.042784, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01384, "annualized_volatility": 0.082877, "from_high_reference": -0.004881, "from_low_reference": 0.342913 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.01873, "fair_value_reference": 26.7188, "structural_low": 30.1, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": 0.011123, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000843, "regime_survival": 0.755556, "best_return": 0.192731, "worst_return": -0.144565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.032201, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.001052, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.140101, "worst_return": -0.089622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.059167, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.016284, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.175092, "worst_return": -0.055832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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35.055, "volume": 3016, "typical_volume": 6828.35, "trend": 32.324564, "fair_value": 26.362206, "relative_strength": -1.504527, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.229818, "energy": 86.398265, "activity_lines": [ 34.946333, 34.694826, 33.816, 33.189742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.904999, "volume": 2898, "typical_volume": 6451.4, "trend": 32.502725, "fair_value": 26.45023, "relative_strength": -0.576378, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.911606, "energy": 67.253633, "activity_lines": [ 34.950333, 34.78507, 33.992869, 33.356221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.220001, "volume": 15335, "typical_volume": 6698.75, "trend": 32.68906, "fair_value": 26.537196, "relative_strength": 0.418496, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.465008, "energy": 69.864447, "activity_lines": [ 35.048667, 34.90403, 34.187316, 33.53153 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.029999, "volume": 5235, "typical_volume": 6605.2, "trend": 32.857267, "fair_value": 26.625599, "relative_strength": -0.855828, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.515936, "energy": 64.423244, "activity_lines": [ 35.060333, 34.957409, 34.346352, 33.682558 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.674999, "volume": 4093, "typical_volume": 6607.55, "trend": 33.01873, "fair_value": 26.7188, "relative_strength": -1.977525, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.587015, "energy": 71.153684, "activity_lines": [ 35.267999, 35.111226, 34.548912, 33.864347 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }