{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c238c57b-18aa-4dac-9159-2160a8149b28", "symbol": "VIRC", "name": "Virco Manufacturing Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 51.399, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.216, "architecture_energy": 16.19, "architecture_maturity": 23.827, "architecture_confidence": 65.825, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.85, "rotation_up": 17.21, "upward_expansion": 11.36, "deceleration": 55.64, "rotation_down": 44.32, "downward_expansion": 63.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.1, 6.156428, 6.124427, 6.127622 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 6.12, "trend_reference": 6.171741, "distance_from_trend": -0.008384, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.257996, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.33895, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.803425, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.050616, "excess_performance": -0.23807, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008384, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027145, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.33895, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00382, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.198034, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10061, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.050616, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.329299, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78343, "relative_activity": 0.281512, "balance": 2.329299, "dry_up": 0.572996, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072532, "annualized_volatility": 0.328541, "from_high_reference": -0.315948, "from_low_reference": 0.192046 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.171741, "fair_value_reference": 9.257996, "structural_low": 5.134028, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.000721, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.018327, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.151786, "worst_return": -0.335755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.065119, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.096454, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.648379, "worst_return": -0.23738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.130952, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.050578, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.955538, "worst_return": -0.309976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.200282, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09644, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.305982, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.170905, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.175072, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105106, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.179966, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152662, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.023499, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.306512, "volume": 68676, "typical_volume": 109178.35, "trend": 4.049408, "fair_value": 3.377758, "relative_strength": -10.167142, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", 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6.197425, 6.132489, 6.156967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.17, "volume": 128368, "typical_volume": 283410.45, "trend": 6.205084, "fair_value": 9.225396, "relative_strength": -18.316456, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.414387, "energy": 17.321043, "activity_lines": [ 6.256, 6.204846, 6.137335, 6.154302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.0, "volume": 165405, "typical_volume": 283466.75, "trend": 6.192521, "fair_value": 9.236065, "relative_strength": -18.46604, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.54978, "energy": 13.200831, "activity_lines": [ 6.176, 6.178909, 6.126597, 6.14107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.05, "volume": 265729, "typical_volume": 284604.85, "trend": 6.185924, "fair_value": 9.246619, "relative_strength": -17.476971, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.888403, "energy": 13.212969, "activity_lines": [ 6.120667, 6.162163, 6.121566, 6.131876 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.12, "volume": 78343, "typical_volume": 278293.7, "trend": 6.171741, "fair_value": 9.257996, "relative_strength": -19.803425, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.215927, "energy": 16.18954, "activity_lines": [ 6.1, 6.156428, 6.124427, 6.127622 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }