{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c23d3f30-6348-4bad-83dc-aba8e7640799", "symbol": "BCT", "name": "Birla Carbon (Thailand) Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 81.469, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.394, "architecture_energy": 12.748, "architecture_maturity": 25.135, "architecture_confidence": 35.859, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.93, "rotation_up": 28.96, "upward_expansion": 33.67, "deceleration": 55.02, "rotation_down": 31.39, "downward_expansion": 20.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.633333, 49.763636, 49.074696, 48.520852 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 49.25, "trend_reference": 49.148366, "distance_from_trend": 0.002068, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 56.609472, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.130004, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.010014, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.048309, "excess_performance": -0.240634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002068, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007071, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.130004, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077702, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1401, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062304, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048309, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 800, "relative_activity": 0.098949, "balance": 9.0, "dry_up": 0.340136, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041773, "annualized_volatility": 0.221168, "from_high_reference": -0.179167, "from_low_reference": 0.203233 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.148366, "fair_value_reference": 56.609472, "structural_low": 40.931374, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008439, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007952, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.165825, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.166402, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.172996, "worst_return": 0.158654, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.212518, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.21488, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.271189, "worst_return": 0.153846, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.510565, "energy": 24.590902, "activity_lines": [ 45.522875, 44.777807, 46.985247, 48.397902 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 48.774509, "volume": 19700, "typical_volume": 8490.0, "trend": 49.588725, "fair_value": 56.906532, "relative_strength": -14.433776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.983981, "energy": 20.632858, "activity_lines": [ 46.732025, 45.520677, 46.936928, 48.345962 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 49.019608, "volume": 12600, "typical_volume": 9060.0, "trend": 49.531046, "fair_value": 56.886287, "relative_strength": -14.827082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.841468, "energy": 19.81733, "activity_lines": [ 47.647058, 46.294028, 46.927311, 48.309245 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 49.019608, "volume": 19600, "typical_volume": 10010.0, "trend": 49.498366, "fair_value": 56.863041, "relative_strength": -16.05154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.182048, "energy": 13.499228, "activity_lines": [ 48.316993, 46.976114, 46.929505, 48.276249 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 50.0, "volume": 8400, "typical_volume": 10405.0, "trend": 49.573366, "fair_value": 56.844023, "relative_strength": -14.741162, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.536249, "energy": 20.392377, "activity_lines": [ 49.052287, 47.740641, 47.044024, 48.308613 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 50.0, "volume": 1900, "typical_volume": 10445.0, "trend": 49.590033, "fair_value": 56.817323, "relative_strength": -14.91248, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.366039, "energy": 29.258546, "activity_lines": [ 49.591503, 48.377896, 47.2014, 48.336137 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 50.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10445.0, "trend": 49.556699, "fair_value": 56.796768, "relative_strength": -13.410248, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.065485, "energy": 39.389415, "activity_lines": [ 49.803922, 48.877005, 47.406396, 48.362587 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 50.0, "volume": 3200, "typical_volume": 10420.0, "trend": 49.490033, "fair_value": 56.780823, "relative_strength": -11.32402, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.996848, "energy": 38.699728, "activity_lines": [ 49.934641, 49.251337, 47.65901, 48.391187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 49.75, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": 10265.0, "trend": 49.515033, "fair_value": 56.746375, "relative_strength": -15.066962, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.084229, "energy": 24.171228, "activity_lines": [ 49.916667, 49.495544, 47.896148, 48.407959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 50.0, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 10185.0, "trend": 49.473366, "fair_value": 56.719675, "relative_strength": -14.629728, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.848471, "energy": 18.980242, "activity_lines": [ 49.933333, 49.700624, 48.163048, 48.439247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.0, "volume": 4300, "typical_volume": 10175.0, "trend": 49.406699, "fair_value": 56.689903, "relative_strength": -15.159117, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.16732, "energy": 17.141671, "activity_lines": [ 49.95, 49.852228, 48.429949, 48.473224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.75, "volume": 3300, "typical_volume": 9875.0, "trend": 49.331699, "fair_value": 56.663137, "relative_strength": -15.435803, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.968036, "energy": 18.729212, "activity_lines": [ 49.883333, 49.869251, 48.67542, 48.495372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.75, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 8340.0, "trend": 49.273366, "fair_value": 56.634834, "relative_strength": -14.094339, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.766623, "energy": 14.214471, "activity_lines": [ 49.833333, 49.868538, 48.912558, 48.522359 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.25, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 8085.0, "trend": 49.148366, "fair_value": 56.609472, "relative_strength": -14.010014, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.394477, "energy": 12.747856, "activity_lines": [ 49.633333, 49.763636, 49.074696, 48.520852 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }