{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c23d7eb5-0440-4fee-858f-49dccc59a70b", "symbol": "SCL", "name": "Stepan Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 344, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "stage_color": "blue", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "stage_age_weeks": 23, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_score": 89.441, "is_transition_watch": true, "confidence": 96.0, "composite_score": 81.435, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_color": "green", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.271, "architecture_energy": 77.145, "architecture_maturity": 25.329, "architecture_confidence": 78.299, "architecture_age_weeks": 5, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.271, "energy": 77.145, "maturity": 25.329, "confidence": 78.299, "confirmation": 95.411, "age_weeks": 5, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Activity Lines are positively ordered above the 30-week Trend Line, with rising slopes and price acceptance. Fan expansion measures the energy of the move; contraction inside this regime warns that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.84, "rotation_up": 81.45, "upward_expansion": 93.27, "deceleration": 40.34, "rotation_down": 10.32, "downward_expansion": 15.27 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 59.784, "10": 57.778664, "20": 55.204666, "30": 54.271816 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": 1.097623, "10": 0.952051, "20": 0.680255, "30": 0.408344 }, "bullish_order": 1.0, "bearish_order": 0.0, "fan_width_atr": 1.332469, "fan_width_change_4": 0.49457, "fan_width_percentile": 0.711538, "fast_slow_gap_atr": 0.977343, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": 0.480537, "price_acceptance": 1.0, "current_fan_distance_atr": 1.052983, "accepted_above": 1.0, "accepted_below": 0.0, "crossing_density": 0.125 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "Price is building a base around a flattening 30-week trend.", "body": "The job of Stage 1 is repair: declining pressure must fade, relative strength must improve, and resistance must be absorbed before an advance is confirmed.", "phase": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 89/100." }, "latest_close": 64.14, "sma_30": 53.826206, "distance_from_sma_30": 0.191613, "sma_30_slope": 0.076455, "fair_value": 63.850191, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.004539, "fair_value_gap_change_13": 0.235168, "is_fair_value_repair": false, "mansfield_rs": 16.77493, "mansfield_rs_change_13": 24.726117, "range_position_52": 0.891733, "returns": { "13": 0.25259, "26": 0.130471, "52": 0.327708 }, "relative_returns": { "26": 0.045151, "52": 0.112873 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 36.51, "2": 100.0, "3": 34.62, "4": 0.0 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": true, "value": 0.191613, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": true, "value": 0.076455, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.004539, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "13-week Fair Value gap", "positive": true, "value": 0.235168, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Mansfield RS vs SPY", "positive": true, "value": 0.167749, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "13-week RS change", "positive": true, "value": 0.247261, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "26-week price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130471, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "13-week volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.019972, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1162358, "ratio_20": 1.577077, "up_down_ratio_13": 2.019972, "dry_up_ratio": 1.037596, "accumulation_weeks": 3, "distribution_weeks": 0 }, "base": { "high_26": 66.970012, "low_26": 43.821299, "depth": 0.345658, "compression": 0.711055, "breakout_distance": -0.042258 }, "risk": { "atr_percent": 0.064497, "annualized_volatility": 0.518533, "drawdown_from_52_high": -0.042258, "advance_from_52_low": 0.570874 }, "levels": { "breakout_reference": 66.970012, 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"classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. 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