{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c23dfc88-5737-4465-a9c9-4636cc9d2807", "symbol": "SELIC", "name": "Selic Corp Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.94, "architecture_energy": 19.753, "architecture_maturity": 47.582, "architecture_confidence": 79.431, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.54, "rotation_up": 21.62, "upward_expansion": 53.39, "deceleration": 92.49, "rotation_down": 26.94, "downward_expansion": 19.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.785333, 2.808364, 2.767296, 2.708149 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.8, "trend_reference": 2.638537, "distance_from_trend": 0.061194, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.573858, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.087861, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.129169, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.097172, "excess_performance": -0.095153, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061194, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031844, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.087861, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045751, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071292, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0334, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097172, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.089626, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 158300, "relative_activity": 1.049879, "balance": 2.089626, "dry_up": 1.067786, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044505, "annualized_volatility": 0.24146, "from_high_reference": -0.084967, "from_low_reference": 0.234318 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.638537, "fair_value_reference": 2.573858, "structural_low": 2.306267, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.010553, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.035161, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.108975, "worst_return": -0.08982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004834, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067565, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.385399, "worst_return": -0.1625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009965, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.019786, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.294688, "worst_return": -0.098039, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.029475, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028777, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050725, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021127, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035971, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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"up", "direction": 35.544834, "energy": 20.447103, "activity_lines": [ 2.781333, 2.812727, 2.756028, 2.69728 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.8, "volume": 158300, "typical_volume": 150779.3, "trend": 2.638537, "fair_value": 2.573858, "relative_strength": -7.129169, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.940132, "energy": 19.752642, "activity_lines": [ 2.785333, 2.808364, 2.767296, 2.708149 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }