{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c23eb822-d715-4827-932d-87f533cbc911", "symbol": "GDWN", "name": "Goodwin PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 66.882, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 46.616, "architecture_energy": 51.415, "architecture_maturity": 16.498, "architecture_confidence": 90.741, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.39, "rotation_up": 72.83, "upward_expansion": 52.02, "deceleration": 21.5, "rotation_down": 15.02, "downward_expansion": 22.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 18742.0, 17919.636364, 16294.285714, 16695.565684 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20650.0, "trend_reference": 18254.584245, "distance_from_trend": 0.131223, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10176.849084, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.029115, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.825199, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.223641, "excess_performance": -0.274877, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.131223, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058858, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.029115, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.702873, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.098252, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.331685, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.223641, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.420908, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91727, "relative_activity": 1.36794, "balance": 3.420908, "dry_up": 0.83419, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095056, "annualized_volatility": 1.050232, "from_high_reference": -0.275399, "from_low_reference": 1.290315 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18254.584245, "fair_value_reference": 10176.849084, "structural_low": 10820.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.002645, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.027421, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065789, "worst_return": -0.106352, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.25, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.148194, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.356003, "worst_return": -0.286558, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.2765, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.159738, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.580302, "worst_return": -0.101743, "sufficient": false 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15961.090909, 15134.342708, 16666.873391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17820.0, "volume": 29950, "typical_volume": 68581.65, "trend": 18532.13125, "fair_value": 9905.266458, "relative_strength": 0.121855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.002741, "energy": 36.725587, "activity_lines": [ 17285.333333, 16454.545455, 15306.933203, 16617.318855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18600.0, "volume": 34346, "typical_volume": 67879.9, "trend": 18482.168294, "fair_value": 9993.849803, "relative_strength": 2.117561, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 19.840541, "energy": 46.968787, "activity_lines": [ 17817.333333, 16987.272727, 15584.183994, 16621.697484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17320.0, "volume": 67723, "typical_volume": 68594.65, "trend": 18342.874609, "fair_value": 10074.292074, "relative_strength": -6.741877, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.99837, "energy": 30.537146, "activity_lines": [ 17761.333333, 17181.454545, 15763.333333, 16546.718884 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20650.0, "volume": 91727, "typical_volume": 67054.85, "trend": 18254.584245, "fair_value": 10176.849084, "relative_strength": 9.825199, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.616126, "energy": 51.414969, "activity_lines": [ 18742.0, 17919.636364, 16294.285714, 16695.565684 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }