{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c24023a5-5f16-43e5-b55c-dc72fab599a8", "symbol": "PRM", "name": "Prim, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.161, "architecture_energy": 40.254, "architecture_maturity": 61.725, "architecture_confidence": 78.367, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.48, "rotation_up": 57.86, "upward_expansion": 82.9, "deceleration": 46.36, "rotation_down": 14.57, "downward_expansion": 7.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.322093, 13.237255, 13.209996, 13.144663 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.35, "trend_reference": 13.068164, "distance_from_trend": 0.021567, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.880991, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.22691, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.299164, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.037502, "excess_performance": -0.086929, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021567, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00048, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.22691, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017887, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122992, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070227, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037502, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.44308, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35180, "relative_activity": 2.017069, "balance": 8.44308, "dry_up": 1.380958, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034495, "annualized_volatility": 0.144652, "from_high_reference": -0.023856, "from_low_reference": 0.168859 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.068164, "fair_value_reference": 10.880991, "structural_low": 12.1, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.001986, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005127, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.138253, "worst_return": -0.146154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.010301, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.033378, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.195426, "worst_return": -0.124542, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.015526, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.042734, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.409664, "worst_return": -0.197099, 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"Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.134211, "energy": 30.331685, "activity_lines": [ 13.235893, 13.181437, 13.161568, 13.106993 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.35, "volume": 21510, "typical_volume": 16531.0, "trend": 13.060328, "fair_value": 10.858772, "relative_strength": -10.878622, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.732852, "energy": 36.623287, "activity_lines": [ 13.28628, 13.209346, 13.187925, 13.125975 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.35, "volume": 35180, "typical_volume": 17441.15, "trend": 13.068164, "fair_value": 10.880991, "relative_strength": -12.299164, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.160911, "energy": 40.253504, "activity_lines": [ 13.322093, 13.237255, 13.209996, 13.144663 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }