{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2402d70-c4f2-4ed6-af1b-0c860ab974f9", "symbol": "PCAR", "name": "PACCAR Inc", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.349, "architecture_energy": 84.934, "architecture_maturity": 17.454, "architecture_confidence": 64.919, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.96, "rotation_up": 79.76, "upward_expansion": 96.59, "deceleration": 41.91, "rotation_down": 8.33, "downward_expansion": 20.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 114.364001, 111.274547, 106.835258, 105.416 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 113.980003, "trend_reference": 104.26544, "distance_from_trend": 0.093171, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 89.9159, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.267629, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.168107, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.062733, "excess_performance": -0.111514, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093171, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060024, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.267629, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150641, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031681, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057044, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062733, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.106764, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1979, "relative_activity": 10.063565, "balance": 0.106764, "dry_up": 4.591915, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038451, "annualized_volatility": 0.239996, "from_high_reference": -0.073333, "from_low_reference": 0.465441 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 104.26544, "fair_value_reference": 89.9159, "structural_low": 93.389999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.02566, "positive_rate": 0.59375, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": 0.009073, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.153328, "worst_return": -0.124714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.051234, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.042329, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.231182, "worst_return": -0.091067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.06645, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.044434, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.306008, "worst_return": -0.225066, "sufficient": true }, { 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103.633335, 101.100397, 101.413151, 101.622682 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 104.440002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 16.05, "trend": 101.281777, "fair_value": 88.476745, "relative_strength": -10.254112, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.914654, "energy": 41.633442, "activity_lines": [ 104.429335, 101.79629, 101.64654, 101.851345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 109.800003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 16.05, "trend": 101.818432, "fair_value": 88.75174, "relative_strength": -4.353283, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.242885, "energy": 73.31355, "activity_lines": [ 106.381335, 103.523545, 102.399971, 102.400908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 111.160004, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 16.05, "trend": 102.351306, "fair_value": 89.009931, "relative_strength": -1.348862, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.362967, "energy": 83.563947, "activity_lines": [ 108.31067, 105.352002, 103.267064, 103.00359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 117.360001, "volume": 315, "typical_volume": 31.8, "trend": 103.113691, "fair_value": 89.324577, "relative_strength": 2.677662, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.626185, "energy": 92.285781, "activity_lines": [ 111.738669, 108.044184, 104.6929, 103.971893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 115.339996, "volume": 1318, "typical_volume": 97.7, "trend": 103.822649, "fair_value": 89.62906, "relative_strength": 0.933032, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.911716, "energy": 90.15409, "activity_lines": [ 113.577334, 109.975637, 105.863864, 104.760686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 113.980003, "volume": 1979, "typical_volume": 196.65, "trend": 104.26544, "fair_value": 89.9159, "relative_strength": -3.168107, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.349212, "energy": 84.933896, "activity_lines": [ 114.364001, 111.274547, 106.835258, 105.416 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }