{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c2468d97-8df8-4c67-b113-7832ecd340ea", "symbol": "300769", "name": "Shenzhen Dynanonic Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.86, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.662, "architecture_energy": 65.951, "architecture_maturity": 12.721, "architecture_confidence": 77.889, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.35, "rotation_up": 14.05, "upward_expansion": 30.13, "deceleration": 49.11, "rotation_down": 71.47, "downward_expansion": 57.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.705334, 50.497637, 56.625, 55.366839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 47.0, "trend_reference": 52.750667, "distance_from_trend": -0.109016, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.085641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.01984, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.389964, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.135266, "excess_performance": 0.127866, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.109016, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049911, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.01984, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.553563, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0539, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.622587, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.135266, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.455866, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70961398, "relative_activity": 0.720562, "balance": 0.455866, "dry_up": 0.793233, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164124, "annualized_volatility": 0.792808, "from_high_reference": -0.467724, "from_low_reference": 0.461443 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.750667, "fair_value_reference": 46.085641, "structural_low": 38.310001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.076858, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.080049, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.178449, "worst_return": -0.134978, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.178818, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.166638, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.127375, "worst_return": -0.230261, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.191958, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.27675, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.019309, "worst_return": -0.403225, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093487, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.063877, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027717, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.172541, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.061659, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04188, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"fair_value": 47.536539, "relative_strength": -8.498807, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -15.006687, "energy": 24.825357, "activity_lines": [ 54.083334, 59.296728, 60.442619, 57.06428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.16, "volume": 88954365, "typical_volume": 101584464.6, "trend": 52.766, "fair_value": 47.064103, "relative_strength": -11.687178, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.123541, "energy": 40.104521, "activity_lines": [ 48.730667, 55.459819, 58.991857, 56.378258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.740002, "volume": 74882434, "typical_volume": 99707105.2, "trend": 52.651, "fair_value": 46.492692, "relative_strength": -9.172702, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.233089, "energy": 62.78545, "activity_lines": [ 45.308668, 52.309274, 57.597048, 55.73142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.0, "volume": 70961398, "typical_volume": 98480599.75, "trend": 52.750667, "fair_value": 46.085641, "relative_strength": -5.389964, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.661566, "energy": 65.950573, "activity_lines": [ 44.705334, 50.497637, 56.625, 55.366839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }