{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c24811d9-61d0-4d22-ba1b-bc2f03558167", "symbol": "OLI", "name": "Olidata S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.561, "architecture_energy": 15.436, "architecture_maturity": 27.479, "architecture_confidence": 63.267, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.6, "rotation_up": 19.58, "upward_expansion": 15.9, "deceleration": 56.73, "rotation_down": 41.24, "downward_expansion": 58.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.624667, 1.652145, 1.623497, 1.633328 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.6, "trend_reference": 1.69911, "distance_from_trend": -0.058331, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.634614, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.559788, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.824298, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.194523, "excess_performance": -0.365414, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058331, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08945, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.559788, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031398, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.328243, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058964, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.194523, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.726816, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 101258, "relative_activity": 0.620737, "balance": 0.726816, "dry_up": 0.501122, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133462, "annualized_volatility": 0.660839, "from_high_reference": -0.473684, "from_low_reference": 0.277955 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.69911, "fair_value_reference": 3.634614, "structural_low": 1.252, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.029271, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.005828, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.410233, "worst_return": -0.438182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.064063, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.018134, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.318286, "worst_return": -0.430909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.095313, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.105175, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.023602, "worst_return": -0.642218, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.513276, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.694777, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.370302, "worst_return": -0.65625, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.096875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073456, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080224, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.254545, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.304918, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02406, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058275, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147514, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024581, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.278107, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.184319, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032258, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.04, "volume": 16923, "typical_volume": 127173.95, "trend": 2.709333, "fair_value": 1.719641, "relative_strength": 30.537385, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"relative_strength": -31.865863, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.156227, "energy": 12.570235, "activity_lines": [ 1.661067, 1.663382, 1.619309, 1.647963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.63, "volume": 56978, "typical_volume": 165378.7, "trend": 1.71876, "fair_value": 3.643973, "relative_strength": -30.658459, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.495631, "energy": 12.148164, "activity_lines": [ 1.650533, 1.662691, 1.622698, 1.64099 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.6, "volume": 101258, "typical_volume": 163125.5, "trend": 1.69911, "fair_value": 3.634614, "relative_strength": -32.824298, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.560653, "energy": 15.436429, "activity_lines": [ 1.624667, 1.652145, 1.623497, 1.633328 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }